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You can borrow at 6.37% over ten years on notice 378/26, 6.17% with the certainty rate and 5.77% on housing revenue account loans. Two years is 5.69%, five 6.00%, twenty 6.81%, twenty-five 6.87% and fifty 6.57%. The morning sheet came in at 6.33%, the lowest of the week; the second added four points, eight thousand pounds a year on a twenty-million draw.

Government bonds — the state's own borrowing, which prices yours — reached their lowest just after the open and their highest just before five. As at a quarter past five, fifty years is 3.9 basis points above Tuesday's close, twenty 2.5, thirty 2.2, ten 1.2, while five years is 0.4 below and two 1.3. Swaps 4.460%. City AM has French borrowing costs called unsustainable.

On Thursday 5 November the Bank of England is expected to raise Bank Rate to 4%. December has held at no change in every reading taken this week.

Growth was revised up to 0.5% in the quarter against 0.4% expected, euro-area inflation came in at 4.2% against 3.8%, and American core inflation at 0.2% against 0.3%. Nationwide house prices arrive at seven tomorrow, forecast flat on the month. American factory activity at three comes after both of tomorrow's settings.

Treasurer's read

Tomorrow's first reset is estimated at 6.399% over ten years against the 6.37% on the desk tonight, and 6.615% at fifty against 6.57%. Only the two shortest terms come out lower, 5.676% at two years against 5.69%. So a long draw is better done on tonight's sheet than tomorrow's on this reading, and a short one can wait.

Notice 378/26 stands: 6.37% over ten years, 6.17% with the certainty rate and 5.77% on housing revenue account loans. Two years is 5.69%, five 6.00%, twenty 6.81%, twenty-five 6.87% and fifty 6.57%. That sheet reached us at lunchtime and is the last of the day, so it is what a council draws at until the morning.

Government bonds — the state's own borrowing, which prices yours — stand at 13:44 with five-year yields 4.2 basis points under Tuesday's close, two 3.1, ten 2.2, thirty 1.5, twenty 1.2 and fifty 0.1. At 13:20 the five-year was 1.4 under and the two-year 0.5, with fifty years 0.9 over. Swaps 4.459%. The Guardian has the diesel shortage worsening if an export ban follows.

On Thursday 5 November the Bank of England is expected to raise Bank Rate to 4%. December has carried no change all week, and February holds the step after November.

Those four American numbers all landed after both of today's settings, so the first price able to carry them is tomorrow morning's. Nothing further is due from Britain today. The Bank of England meets next on 5 November.

Treasurer's read

Tomorrow's opening price is estimated at 5.658% for two-year money against the 5.69% on the desk, and 6.365% over a decade against 6.37%. So holding off until the morning is worth three basis points on a two-year draw and next to nothing on a ten-year one. Wait only if the borrowing is short.

You can borrow at 6.37% over ten years on notice 378/26, 6.17% with the certainty rate and 5.77% on housing revenue account loans. Two years is 5.69%, five 6.00%, twenty 6.81%, twenty-five 6.87% and fifty 6.57%. Four points have gone back on a decade since nine o'clock, eight thousand pounds a year on a twenty-million draw, and five at both five and twenty-five years.

Government bonds — the state's own borrowing, which prices yours — are close to Tuesday's close at 13:20: fifty years 0.9 basis points above it, two 0.5 below, twenty 0.7, thirty 0.8, five 1.4 and ten 1.4. The morning's lowest reading was 8.3 under at 08:18. Swaps 4.459%. The Markets stream has German inflation at its highest since 2023.

On Thursday 5 November the Bank of England is expected to raise Bank Rate to 4%. December has carried no change all week.

The euro-area figure arrived after this sheet was set, so it reaches tomorrow morning rather than anything today. American core inflation is due at half past one, forecast 0.3% from 0.2%, alongside final growth and the income and spending numbers; all of them fall beyond both of today's settings too.

Treasurer's read

Tomorrow's first reset is estimated at 6.373% over ten years against the 6.37% you can borrow at now — three tenths of a point, near enough the same price. The wider gap is at fifty years, 6.585% against 6.57%. A council that drew this morning at 6.33% did better than anything since, and for one deciding now there is nothing here that rewards waiting overnight.

You can borrow at 6.33% over ten years on notice 377/26, 6.13% with the certainty rate and 5.73% on housing revenue account loans. The lunchtime reset is estimated at 6.364% for the same term, 3.4 basis points higher, and above 377/26 at every maturity: 5.988% at five years against 5.95%, 6.564% at fifty against 6.53%. Half an hour ago the ten-year gap was 0.7.

Government bonds — the state's own borrowing, which prices yours — stand at 10:14 with the ten-year 3.4 basis points under Tuesday's close, five years 3.0, twenty 2.9, thirty 2.3, two 1.2 and fifty 0.7. At 09:44 those same readings were 6.2, 5.6, 5.3, 4.9, 3.8 and 3.2, and the deepest of the morning was 8.3 at 08:18. Swaps 4.461%.

On Thursday 5 November the Bank of England is expected to raise Bank Rate to 4%. December still carries no change, unmoved since Monday evening.

The Markets stream has Italian inflation rising more than expected, and Bloomberg has France's ten-year risk premium at 120 basis points. A further euro-area reading at one is forecast at 3.2%. The Bank's financial policy record is due at half past ten. American core inflation at half past one falls beyond both of today's settings.

Treasurer's read

At nine the morning sheet looked like the worse of today's two prices. It no longer does: 6.33% is on the desk now and lunchtime is estimated at 6.364%. A council that can draw this morning should take the rate in front of it rather than wait for the second setting.

You can borrow at 6.33% over ten years on notice 377/26, 6.13% with the certainty rate and 5.73% on housing revenue account loans. Two years is 5.65%, five 5.95%, twenty 6.77%, twenty-five 6.82% and fifty 6.53%. Three sheets running have come in lower at a decade, 6.39% down to 6.33% — twelve thousand pounds a year on a twenty-million draw.

Government bonds — the state's own borrowing, which prices yours — sit beneath Tuesday's close right along the curve. At 09:44 a decade is 6.2 basis points down, five years 5.6, twenty 5.3, thirty 4.9, two 3.8 and fifty 3.2. The deepest readings came at twenty past eight, when ten years touched 8.3 down. Swaps 4.454%. The Markets stream has Bund yields easing.

On Thursday 5 November the Bank of England is expected to raise Bank Rate to 4%. The reading for December has not shifted since Monday evening.

French inflation at 3% against 2.8% expected was the morning's only figure, and it arrived before this sheet. Euro-area readings follow at ten and at one, forecast 3.8% and 3.2%. The Bank's financial policy record lands at half past ten. American core inflation at half past one comes after both settings, so it reaches tomorrow.

Treasurer's read

Lunchtime is estimated at 6.337% over ten years against the 6.33% you can borrow at now, and higher at every other term as well. Fifty years shows the widest gap, 6.539% against 6.53%. On this reading a council ready to draw has the better price in hand this morning rather than after lunch.

Notice 376/26 is untouched: 6.35% over ten years, 6.15% with the certainty rate and 5.75% on housing revenue account loans. This morning's reset is estimated 0.9 basis points under that decade, 2.7 under at one and two years, 1.6 at five, 0.7 at twenty, and a shade over at fifty. Last night the ten-year figure sat 5.0 higher — twelve thousand a year on twenty million.

Government bonds — the state's own borrowing, which prices yours — opened 3.4 to 4.8 basis points under last night's close and have gone further since. At 08:15 thirty years is 6.4 lower, twenty 6.1, ten 5.9, five 5.8, fifty 5.1 and two 5.0. Swaps 4.448%. The Markets stream has the euro ending September under pressure, and City AM has Greggs placing 740 jobs at risk.

On Thursday 5 November the Bank of England is expected to raise Bank Rate to 4%. Nothing extra is carried for December, and the move after November is looked for at the February meeting.

Two more euro-area readings are due, at ten and at one, forecast 3.8% and 3.2%. The Bank's financial policy record follows at half past ten, between today's pair of settings. American core inflation at half past one, forecast 0.3% from 0.2%, comes after both and so reaches tomorrow.

Treasurer's read

Overnight the estimate has gone from five basis points above the sheet to just under it. A council that could not draw yesterday has lost nothing by waiting: the nine o'clock reset now looks a shade cheaper than the 6.35% on the desk at every term but fifty years, where it is a fifth of a point higher.

You can borrow at 6.35% over ten years on notice 376/26, 6.15% with the certainty rate and 5.75% on housing revenue account loans, with 5.68%, 5.98%, 6.78% and 6.53% at two, five, twenty and fifty. The nine o'clock reset is estimated 5.0 basis points above that decade — ten thousand pounds a year on a twenty-million draw.

Government bonds — the state's own borrowing, which prices yours — finished within half a point of where last night's wrap found them. At 17:59 a decade stood 1.3 basis points over Monday's close, fifty years 2.5, thirty 1.2 and twenty 0.4, two years 2.6 under and five 0.6. Swaps 4.466%. City AM has shares rising with oil sliding on an emergency release.

On Thursday 5 November the Bank of England is expected to raise Bank Rate to 4%. December stays at no change on this morning's reading, and February carries the step after November.

Euro-area flash inflation at a quarter to eight is the last thing due ahead of today's opening price; second and third readings at ten and at one come later. The Bank's financial policy record lands at half past ten. American core inflation at half past one, forecast 0.3% from 0.2%, falls beyond both of today's settings.

Treasurer's read

All of this morning's figures landed before nine, so today's first reset is the earliest price that can reflect them. On last night's reading it comes out at 6.400% over ten years — five basis points more than the 6.35% you can draw at now. If that holds, drawing this morning beats waiting.