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Editions
PWLBpulse — editions for 2026-10-19
13:25
Tuesday's opening PWLB estimate edges toward 6.40% as Wall Street's tech rebound cools demand for safety
PWLB 10y — you can borrow at: 6.39%PWLB 10y — with certainty rate: 6.19%PWLB 10y — next reset, est: 6.397% (+0.7bp)1y SONIA swap: 4.515% (+1.8bp)
Ten-year PWLB borrowing costs 6.39% on 404/26, and tomorrow morning's estimate has crept up to 6.397%; rounded, that would match the 6.40% of 12 October. Five years has the largest projected rise, 1.6 to 6.036%, ten years the smallest at 0.7, with two years 1.3 higher at 5.733%. Gilt yields have pushed back up after lunch, ten years now 3.9 points above Friday's close. American share futures are higher as AI stocks recover, which points to less demand for safe government debt. Separately, Threadneedle Street is reviewing how Barclays disclosed risks on its private credit loans, the FT says. The thread: Oil ended last week at a five-month high and France faced weekend riots; today tests whether British borrowing costs carry that into the week before Wednesday's inflation figure. They have, and by mid-afternoon the rise is holding. Tuesday's unemployment figures at 07:00 come before the next setting; with little to gain by waiting, a ready draw can go on 404/26.
Through the session5-year gilt, by the minute, against the prior close
The 5-year leads because it moved most by 13:23 — +4.1bp at that point, against +3.9bp on the 10-year (faint). 37% of that was done before London opened — -1.5bp overnight, then +5.6bp through the session. Vertical rules mark where the day’s resets reached us.
311 prints, one a minute, 08:04–13:23, on a fixed 08:00–18:00 axis, measured against the 2026-10-16 17:59 close. Times are when each price reached us, not necessarily when it traded — read the alignment with the reset markers as approximate.
12:52 · STORY · Monday, the lunchtime reset
PWLB ten-year money lifted to 6.39% by a morning of Continental bond selling
PWLB 10y — you can borrow at: 6.39%PWLB 10y — with certainty rate: 6.19%PWLB 10y — next reset, est: 6.382% (-0.8bp)1y SONIA swap: 4.509% (+1.2bp)
Notice 404/26 reached us at 12:51 and lifts ten-year borrowing three basis points to 6.39%, its highest since last Wednesday lunchtime. Every other term rises two.
Through the session10-year gilt, by the minute, against the prior close
The 10-year leads because it moved most by 12:50 — +2.4bp at that point. 30% of that was done before London opened — -0.7bp overnight, then +3.1bp through the session. Vertical rules mark where the day’s resets reached us.
278 prints, one a minute, 08:04–12:50, on a fixed 08:00–18:00 axis, measured against the 2026-10-16 17:59 close. Times are when each price reached us, not necessarily when it traded — read the alignment with the reset markers as approximate.
You can borrow at 6.39% over ten years, 6.19% with the certainty rate and 5.79% on a housing revenue account loan. Two years is 5.72%, its highest since 1 October, and fifty years 6.53%. On £10m over ten years the rise adds £3,000 a year.
The thread: Oil ended last week at a five-month high and France faced weekend riots; today tests whether British borrowing costs carry that into the week before Wednesday's inflation figure. They did, through France more than oil: French and Italian ten-year yields jumped about eight points this morning, and gilts followed. Since then gilt yields have eased, ten years now 2.4 points over Friday.
November is still priced to take Bank Rate to 4%, and December leans slightly toward a second step. The one-year swap rate is 4.509%, 1.2 higher on the day.
Tuesday at 07:00 brings unemployment, forecast 5.0% after 4.9%, with pay growth seen at 3.8%, before the morning setting. Wednesday's inflation figure, forecast 3.4% after 3.1%, lands at 07:00 too. The Governor speaks on Wednesday and Thursday. The Budget is on 28 October and the Bank decides on 5 November.
Treasurer's read
Tuesday's first setting points 0.8 below this notice, as gilts have given back part of the morning's rise. A draw that can wait for the jobs figures loses little; one due today goes on 404/26.
12:23
Red Sea oil terminal comes under attack as the 12:30 PWLB outlook calms
PWLB 10y — you can borrow at: 6.36%PWLB 10y — with certainty rate: 6.16%PWLB 10y — next reset, est: 6.367% (+0.7bp)1y SONIA swap: 4.511% (+1.4bp)
Most of the morning's projected rise has gone: the 12:30 notice now looks set at 6.367% for ten years, under a point above 403/26's 6.36%. Twenty years points exactly level at 6.77% and fifty years 0.2 higher, 6.512%. Ten-year gilt yields have eased back to 2.2 points over Friday's close, down from 4.0 at 11:15. The Gulf is heating up again: Houthi attacks have hit the Saudi export hub of Yanbu and two tankers were hit, with American crude holding near $101. The thread: Oil ended last week at a five-month high and France faced weekend riots; today tests whether British borrowing costs carry that into the week before Wednesday's inflation figure. Europe's unrest has faded from gilts for now, and oil may take over. With lunchtime pointing within a point of the morning, there is little to choose between drawing now and after 12:30.
Through the session5-year gilt, by the minute, against the prior close
The 5-year leads because it moved most by 12:21 — +2.5bp at that point, against +2.2bp on the 10-year (faint). 59% of that was done before London opened — -1.5bp overnight, then +4.0bp through the session. Vertical rules mark where the day’s resets reached us.
251 prints, one a minute, 08:04–12:21, on a fixed 08:00–18:00 axis, measured against the 2026-10-16 17:59 close. Times are when each price reached us, not necessarily when it traded — read the alignment with the reset markers as approximate.
11:17
Street protests in Milan and Paris spread into bond markets, lifting British borrowing costs too
PWLB 10y — you can borrow at: 6.36%PWLB 10y — with certainty rate: 6.16%PWLB 10y — next reset, est: 6.384% (+2.4bp)1y SONIA swap: 4.519% (+2.2bp)
Lunchtime is now set to bring ten-year PWLB money to about 6.384%, 2.4 points above 403/26's 6.36%. Fifty years has the smallest projected rise, 1.5 to 6.525%, and two years climbs 1.9 to 5.719%. This is a move in European government debt, not a British one: French and Italian ten-year yields are up nearly eight points today, Germany's two. Italy's is near a three-year high after cost-of-living protests in Milan turned violent, and France now pays 1.45 points over Germany to borrow, the FT reports. Gilts have followed, with ten-year yields four points over Friday's close. The thread: Oil ended last week at a five-month high and France faced weekend riots; today tests whether British borrowing costs carry that into the week before Wednesday's inflation figure. The unrest is spreading through the bond market as well as the streets. Locking in 403/26 before midday still saves about two points on a ten-year draw.
Through the session5-year gilt, by the minute, against the prior close
The 5-year leads because it moved most by 11:15 — +4.1bp at that point, against +4.0bp on the 10-year (faint). 37% of that was done before London opened — -1.5bp overnight, then +5.6bp through the session. Vertical rules mark where the day’s resets reached us.
186 prints, one a minute, 08:04–11:15, on a fixed 08:00–18:00 axis, measured against the 2026-10-16 17:59 close. Times are when each price reached us, not necessarily when it traded — read the alignment with the reset markers as approximate.
10:16
Doubts over Paris's budget drag the euro down and lift what councils will pay at midday
PWLB 10y — you can borrow at: 6.36%PWLB 10y — with certainty rate: 6.16%PWLB 10y — next reset, est: 6.380% (+2.0bp)1y SONIA swap: 4.516% (+1.9bp)
The 12:30 notice looks set to put ten years at 6.380%, two points over the 6.36% on 403/26. That would return it to its level for three notices last Tuesday and Wednesday. Two years points 1.5 up at 5.715% and fifty years the least, 1.1 up at 6.521%. Medium-dated gilts now yield about 3.5 points above Friday's close. The euro has slipped toward $1.12, near multi-month lows, as unrest raises doubts over France's ability to cut its deficit. The thread: Oil ended last week at a five-month high and France faced weekend riots; today tests whether British borrowing costs carry that into the week before Wednesday's inflation figure. They are, through France rather than through oil. Anyone with a draw to make today keeps 6.36% by fixing before the 12:30 notice.
Through the session5-year gilt, by the minute, against the prior close
The 5-year leads because it moved most by 10:13 — +3.7bp at that point, against +3.5bp on the 10-year (faint). 40% of that was done before London opened — -1.5bp overnight, then +5.2bp through the session. Vertical rules mark where the day’s resets reached us.
125 prints, one a minute, 08:04–10:13, on a fixed 08:00–18:00 axis, measured against the 2026-10-16 17:59 close. Times are when each price reached us, not necessarily when it traded — read the alignment with the reset markers as approximate.
09:38 · STORY · Monday, the morning reset
PWLB ten-year money stays put at the week's first notice as French unrest offsets easing crude
PWLB 10y — you can borrow at: 6.36%PWLB 10y — with certainty rate: 6.16%PWLB 10y — next reset, est: 6.360% (0.0bp)1y SONIA swap: 4.509% (+1.2bp)
Notice 403/26 reached us at 09:37 and holds ten-year borrowing at 6.36%, while two years rises two basis points to 5.70%. Longer terms ease a point; no term moves more than two.
Through the session5-year gilt, by the minute, against the prior close
The 5-year leads because it moved most by 09:35 — +1.8bp at that point, against +1.7bp on the 10-year (faint). 85% of that was done before London opened — -1.5bp overnight, then +3.3bp through the session. Vertical rules mark where the day’s resets reached us.
89 prints, one a minute, 08:04–09:35, on a fixed 08:00–18:00 axis, measured against the 2026-10-16 17:59 close. Times are when each price reached us, not necessarily when it traded — read the alignment with the reset markers as approximate.
You can borrow at 6.36% over ten years, 6.16% with the certainty rate and 5.76% on a housing revenue account loan. Twenty years is 6.77% and fifty years 6.51%, each down 1. Two years at 5.70% matches its level on 398/26 last Wednesday.
The thread: Oil ended last week at a five-month high and France faced weekend riots; today tests whether British borrowing costs carry that into the week before Wednesday's inflation figure. France has mattered more than oil: French ten-year yields are near their highest in over twenty years after the riots, while Brent fell below $105. Gilt yields at five and ten years sit almost two points above Friday's close.
November is still priced to take Bank Rate to 4%, and December leans slightly toward a second step. The one-year swap rate is 4.509%, 1.2 higher. The average two-year fixed mortgage has reached 5.55%, up from 5.29% a month ago, a homes portal reports.
Tuesday at 07:00 brings unemployment, forecast 5.0% after 4.9%, and Wednesday at 07:00 inflation, forecast 3.4% after 3.1%; both land before that day's first setting. The Governor speaks on Wednesday and Thursday. The Budget is on 28 October and the Bank decides on 5 November.
Treasurer's read
Lunchtime points level with this notice, so a draw ready today loses nothing by going now. The jobs and inflation figures due before Tuesday's and Wednesday's morning settings are the likelier cause of any move in shorter loans.
09:16
Turmoil in Paris lifts Europe's borrowing costs and cancels most of Monday's expected saving
PWLB 10y — you can borrow at: 6.36%PWLB 10y — with certainty rate: 6.16%PWLB 10y — next reset, est: 6.354% (-0.6bp)1y SONIA swap: 4.510% (+1.3bp)
The morning notice now looks almost level with 402/26: ten years is projected at 6.354%, a shade below 6.36%. Fifty years still points 2.3 lower at 6.497%; two years has edged up 0.6, to 5.686%. Five and ten-year gilt yields now sit 1.3 to 1.6 points above the prior close, even as Brent dropped below $105, down about 2.4%. French ten-year yields are nearing 4.85%, close to their highest in more than twenty years, after weekend riots. That points to unrest in France lifting borrowing costs across Europe, outweighing falling oil prices for now. The thread: Oil ended last week at a five-month high and France faced weekend riots; today tests whether British borrowing costs carry that into the week before Wednesday's inflation figure. By the reset, France matters more than oil. With the notice set to land close to today's level, there is little to gain from timing a morning draw.
Through the session5-year gilt, by the minute, against the prior close
The 5-year leads because it moved most by 09:13 — +1.6bp at that point, against +1.3bp on the 10-year (faint). 94% of that was done before London opened — -1.5bp overnight, then +3.1bp through the session. Vertical rules mark where the day’s resets reached us.
69 prints, one a minute, 08:04–09:13, on a fixed 08:00–18:00 axis, measured against the 2026-10-16 17:59 close. Times are when each price reached us, not necessarily when it traded — read the alignment with the reset markers as approximate.
08:22
Gulf supply recovering, says Washington, and crude slips as British debt opens the week calmly
PWLB 10y — you can borrow at: 6.36%PWLB 10y — with certainty rate: 6.16%PWLB 10y — next reset, est: 6.338% (-2.2bp)1y SONIA swap: 4.490% (-0.7bp)
British government bonds began the week steady to slightly firmer, and the 09:15 reset is still expected at 6.338% for ten years, against 6.36% on 402/26. Fifty years shows the biggest drop, 3.2 to 6.488%, while the five-year move is just 1.1, to 5.979%. Brent has fallen more than 2% toward $107 after the US Energy Secretary said Gulf oil flows are back to about 80% of pre-war levels. European share markets look set to start in the red as protests spread from France to Belgium, Italy and Portugal. The thread: Oil ended last week at a five-month high and France faced weekend riots; today tests whether British borrowing costs carry that into the week before Wednesday's inflation figure. So far they have not: the oil price has given back part of Friday's jump. A morning draw looks set to come out about two points lower if it waits for the 09:15 notice.
Through the session30-year gilt, by the minute, against the prior close
The 30-year leads because it moved most by 08:20 — -1.5bp at that point, against -0.2bp on the 10-year (faint). The overnight move was 1.3 times the day’s net — -1.9bp overnight, then +0.4bp back through the session. Vertical rules mark where the day’s resets reached us.
17 prints, one a minute, 08:04–08:20, on a fixed 08:00–18:00 axis, measured against the 2026-10-16 17:59 close. Times are when each price reached us, not necessarily when it traded — read the alignment with the reset markers as approximate.
07:20 · STORY · Monday, the day ahead
Unrest across France and costly crude set a tense start to an inflation week for council borrowers
PWLB 10y — you can borrow at: 6.36%PWLB 10y — with certainty rate: 6.16%PWLB 10y — next reset, est: 6.340% (-2.0bp)1y SONIA swap: 4.497% (+1.1bp)
Monday's first PWLB setting points to 6.340% for ten years on Friday's close, two basis points under the 6.36% on 402/26. That figure predates Brent's Friday-evening climb to a five-month high and weekend rioting in France.
You can borrow at 6.36% over ten years on 402/26 until the morning reset, 6.16% with the certainty rate. Friday's 17:59 close points to 6.340% at ten, 5.679% at two and 6.501% at fifty. A ten-year notice at 6.34% would sit between Thursday's 6.32% and Friday's 6.36%.
The thread: Oil ended last week at a five-month high and France faced weekend riots; today tests whether British borrowing costs carry that into the week before Wednesday's inflation figure. Government bonds, the state's own debt, were last read at 17:59 on Friday. Brent settled at $109.86 that evening and has since eased a little. French bond futures fell in Asia after the unrest.
November is still priced to lift Bank Rate to 4%, and December leans slightly toward a second step. In Tokyo, Governor Ueda said underlying inflation is near 2% and the Middle East conflict is adding to energy-led price pressure.
China's third-quarter growth came in at 4.5% against 4.4% forecast, with retail sales up 1.1%, all before this morning's setting. Tuesday brings unemployment, forecast 5.0%, and Wednesday inflation, forecast 3.4% after 3.1%, each before that day's first setting. The Governor speaks on Wednesday and Thursday. The Budget is on 28 October and the Bank decides on 5 November.
Treasurer's read
The estimate cannot see Friday evening's oil move or the weekend in France, and both pull against Thursday's flight to safety. Wait for the 08:15 open before settling on a morning draw.
PWLBpulse is written from live gilt, SONIA and DMO data as the market
moves. For the numbers behind it, see the live PWLB dashboard.