Morning Rate Update

Headline

“PWLB Rates Take a Breather: Little Change Across the Board”

Notice Details

PWLB Interest Rate Notice Number 483/25, AM reset, published at 09:02 on 12 December 2025.

Maturity Rates

• 1y: 4.65% (-1)
• 3y: 4.78% (-1)
• 5y: 4.97% (-1)
• 10y: 5.53% (0)
• 25y: 6.15% (1)
• 50y: 5.91% (1)

Rates have shifted slightly, with the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year maturities all down by 1 basis point. The 25-year and 50-year rates saw a modest uptick of 1 basis point, while the 10-year rate remains unchanged. Overall, a rather uneventful day for PWLB rates.

Market Context

The yield curve appears relatively stable, with minor adjustments across shorter maturities while longer-term rates show slight increases. Today’s economic data revealed that the UK GDP contracted by 0.1% in October, which was below the forecast of no change, indicating ongoing economic challenges. This contraction may influence borrowing decisions as local authorities assess their financial strategies. Additionally, the UK manufacturing sector reported a slight growth of 0.01% month-on-month, aligning with expectations, which could provide some reassurance to investors. In the news, the UK economy's unexpected contraction has raised concerns about future growth, while global markets are reacting to broader economic sentiments, including the Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts.

Calendar Events

TODAY’S RELEASES:

• GBP GDP MoM - Actual: -0.1% (Forecast: 0.0%, Previous: -0.1%) - This contraction is significant as it highlights ongoing economic challenges.
• GBP Manufacturing Production MoM - Actual: 0.01 (Forecast: 0.01, Previous: -0.02) - Indicates stability in the manufacturing sector.

REMAINING TODAY:

• 12:00: GBP NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker - Forecast: 0.1%

THIS WEEK AHEAD:

• Tuesday 16th: GBP Unemployment Rate - 07:00 - Forecast: 5.1%
• Tuesday 16th: GBP Average Earnings incl. Bonus - 07:00 - Forecast: 4.5%
• Tuesday 16th: GBP S&P Global Services PMI Flash - 09:30 - Forecast: 52

This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and you should always verify current rates directly with the PWLB or through official channels before making borrowing decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Until next time, keep your treasury operations as smooth as a well-oiled machine!