Afternoon Rate Update

Headline

PWLB Rates Shift Slightly, But Not Enough to Raise Eyebrows

Notice Details

PWLB Interest Rate Notice Number 488/25, PM reset, published at 12:30 on 16 December 2025.

Maturity Rates

• 1y: 4.66% (0bps)
• 2y: 4.72% (+1bp)
• 3y: 4.80% (+1bp)
• 5y: 5.00% (+1bp)
• 10y: 5.57% (+2bps)
• 25y: 6.20% (+1bp)
• 50y: 5.97% (+1bp)

Overall, rates have seen minor adjustments, with the 10-year rate nudging up by 2bps, but nothing that would cause a stir in the treasury world.

Afternoon Context

Since this morning, the UK economic landscape has seen some notable data releases. The 10:30am release of the GBP Average Earnings excl. Bonus showed an actual of 4.6%, slightly above the forecast of 4.5%, while the GBP Employment Change came in at -16k, better than the forecast of -60k. However, the unemployment rate remains a concern, holding steady at 5.1%. In the news, the jobs market continues to show signs of strain, particularly affecting younger demographics, which may keep gilt yields under pressure. Overall, the market remains cautious with little immediate reaction to these figures.

Calendar Events

RELEASES SO FAR TODAY:

• GBP Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) - Actual: 4.6% (Forecast: 4.5%, Previous: 4.7%)
• GBP Employment Change - Actual: -16k (Forecast: -60k, Previous: -22k)
• GBP Unemployment Rate - Actual: 5.1% (Forecast: 5.1%, Previous: 5.0%)

REMAINING TODAY:

• No further significant economic releases today.

TOMORROW AND THIS WEEK:

• Tomorrow, 07:00: GBP PPI Output YoY - Forecast: 0.03
• Tomorrow, 07:00: GBP Core Inflation Rate YoY - Forecast: 3.3%
• Tomorrow, 07:00: GBP Inflation Rate MoM - Forecast: -0.1%

This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and you should always verify current rates directly with the PWLB or through official channels before making borrowing decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Until next time, may your treasury operations be as smooth as a well-tuned orchestra!