Morning Rate Update

Headline

PWLB Rates Hold Steady, Market Yawns

Notice Details

PWLB Interest Rate Notice Number 003/26
Effective for transactions agreed after 09:11 on 05 January 2026.

Maturity Rates

• 1y: 4.58% (0)
• 3y: 4.77% (1)
• 5y: 4.99% (1)
• 10y: 5.58% (3)
• 25y: 6.19% (2)
• 50y: 5.96% (3)

Notably, the 10-year rate has increased by 3 basis points, which is a bit more action than the usual snooze-fest.

Market Context

The yield curve remains relatively flat, with minor upward adjustments across the longer maturities. Today’s economic data revealed that UK consumer credit surged to £2.08 billion, significantly above the forecast of £1.20 billion, indicating stronger borrowing trends. This could have implications for future interest rate decisions by the Bank of England. In the news, geopolitical tensions are rising following the US's recent actions in Venezuela, which may influence global oil prices and, consequently, UK inflation. Additionally, the ongoing discussions around the UK economy facing a "zombie apocalypse" due to rising costs could keep market participants on edge.

Calendar Events

TODAY’S RELEASES:

• None scheduled for the remainder of today.

THIS WEEK AHEAD:

• Tomorrow, 00:01: GBP BRC Shop Price Inflation - Forecast: 1.0%
• Tomorrow, 09:00: GBP New Car Sales YoY - Forecast: -0.01
• Tomorrow, 09:30: GBP S&P Global Composite PMI Final - Forecast: 52.1
• Tomorrow, 09:30: GBP S&P Global Services PMI Final - Forecast: 52.1
• Wednesday, 09:30: GBP S&P Global Construction PMI - Forecast: 40.1
• Wednesday: GBP Treasury Gilt 2031 Auction
• Thursday, 07:00: GBP Halifax House Price Index MoM - Forecast: 0.1%
• Thursday, 07:00: GBP Halifax House Price Index - Forecast: 1.0%
• Thursday, 10:00: GBP BBA Mortgage Rate - Forecast: 6.6%

This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and you should always verify current rates directly with the PWLB or through official channels before making borrowing decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Until next time, keep your treasury operations as smooth as a well-oiled machine!