Morning Rate Update

Headline

PWLB Rates Shift Slightly, But Don’t Hold Your Breath!

Notice Details

PWLB Interest Rate Notice Number 005/26, AM reset, published at 09:10 on 06 January 2026.

Maturity Rates

• 1y: 4.58% (+1bps)
• 3y: 4.76% (0bps)
• 5y: 4.99% (+1bps)
• 10y: 5.57% (+1bps)
• 25y: 6.19% (+1bps)
• 50y: 5.95% (+1bps)

Rates have nudged up by 1 basis point across several maturities, but nothing to get too excited about—just a gentle breeze in the treasury world.

Market Context

The yield curve remains relatively stable, with minor increases across short to medium-term maturities. Today's economic data includes the BRC Shop Price Inflation, which came in at 0.7%, slightly below the forecast of 1.0%, indicating a modest inflationary environment. Additionally, New Car Sales YoY showed a positive uptick at 0.04, surpassing the forecast of -0.01. In the news, Jaguar Land Rover's sales have taken a hit due to a cyber attack, while Next has reported strong Christmas sales but warns of a potential slowdown ahead. These developments reflect ongoing economic challenges that could influence future interest rate decisions.

Calendar Events

TODAY'S RELEASES:

• BRC Shop Price Inflation - Actual: 0.7% (Forecast: 1.0%, Previous: 0.6%)
• New Car Sales YoY - Actual: 0.04 (Forecast: -0.01, Previous: -0.02)

REMAINING TODAY:

• No significant economic releases scheduled.

THIS WEEK AHEAD:

• Tomorrow, 09:30: S&P Global Construction PMI - Forecast: 40.1 (Previous: 39.4)
• Tomorrow, 10:00: Treasury Gilt 2031 Auction - Previous: 3.8%
• Thursday: Halifax House Price Index MoM - Forecast: 0.1% (Previous: 0.000)
• Thursday: Halifax House Price Index - Forecast: 1.0% (Previous: 0.7%)
• Thursday: BBA Mortgage Rate - Forecast: 6.6% (Previous: 6.8%)
• Tuesday, 00:01: BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY - Forecast: 0.01 (Previous: 0.01)
• Tuesday, 10:00: Index-linked Treasury Gilt 2035 Auction

This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and you should always verify current rates directly with the PWLB or through official channels before making borrowing decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Until next time, keep your treasury hats on and your spreadsheets ready!