Morning Rate Update

Headline

PWLB Rates Take a Gentle Dip: A Quiet Day in the Treasury

Notice Date: 08 January 2026
Reset Time: 09:08 AM

Maturity Rates

• 1y: 4.54% (-1)
• 3y: 4.69% (-1)
• 5y: 4.90% (0)
• 10y: 5.47% (+1)
• 25y: 6.10% (+2)
• 50y: 5.87% (+3)

Market Context

The latest PWLB rates reflect a modest downward trend for shorter maturities, with the 1-year and 3-year rates both decreasing by 1 basis point. The longer end of the curve, however, saw slight increases, particularly notable in the 25-year and 50-year rates, which rose by 2 and 3 basis points respectively. This mixed movement suggests a flattening of the yield curve, indicating that while short-term borrowing costs are easing, long-term rates are experiencing upward pressure. Today’s economic data includes the Halifax House Price Index, which reported a monthly decline of 0.6%, significantly below the forecast of 0.1%. This drop in house prices may influence market sentiment and borrowing decisions, as it reflects ongoing affordability challenges in the housing sector. Additionally, news from the retail sector indicates mixed performance, with M&S reporting stronger sales despite previous cyber disruptions, while Greggs faced challenges due to a sluggish economy. These developments could have implications for consumer confidence and, by extension, the broader economic outlook.

Calendar Events

TODAY’S RELEASES:

• GBP Halifax House Price Index MoM - Actual: -0.6% (Forecast: 0.1%, Previous: -0.1%) - This significant miss may affect market sentiment.
• GBP Halifax House Price Index - Actual: 0.3% (Forecast: 1.0%, Previous: 0.6%) - Another indicator of housing market pressures.

REMAINING TODAY:

• GBP BBA Mortgage Rate - Due at 10:00 - Forecast: 6.6% (Previous: 6.8%)

THIS WEEK AHEAD:

• Tuesday 00:01: GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY - Forecast: 0.01
• Tuesday 10:00: GBP Index-linked Treasury Gilt 2035 Auction
• Wednesday 10:00: GBP Treasury Gilt 2035 Auction
• Thursday 00:01: GBP RICS House Price Balance - Forecast: -0.16
• Thursday 07:00: GBP Balance of Trade - Forecast: -3.50B
• Thursday 07:00: GBP GDP MoM - Forecast: -0.1%
• Thursday 07:00: GBP Industrial Production MoM - Forecast: 0.01

This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and you should always verify current rates directly with the PWLB or through official channels before making borrowing decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Until next time, keep your treasury operations as smooth as a well-oiled machine!