Morning Rate Update

Headline

Rates Take a Gentle Dip: A Calm Day in the PWLB Waters

Notice Details

PWLB Interest Rate Notice Number 013/26
Effective for transactions agreed after 09:07 on 12 January 2026.

Maturity Rates

• 1y: 4.55% (-1bps)
• 3y: 4.68% (-2bps)
• 5y: 4.88% (-2bps)
• 10y: 5.44% (-3bps)
• 25y: 6.06% (-3bps)
• 50y: 5.84% (-3bps)

Overall, rates have seen minor adjustments, with the most significant drop being 3bps for the 10y, 25y, and 50y maturities—nothing to write home about, but a gentle reminder that the market is still in a state of flux.

Market Context

The current yield curve reflects a slight flattening, with shorter maturities experiencing smaller declines compared to longer ones. This could indicate a cautious sentiment among investors. Today, there are no significant GBP economic releases reported so far, but the market is keeping an eye on the geopolitical landscape, particularly the ongoing protests in Iran, which could add volatility to global markets. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's recent legal troubles may influence investor sentiment towards US assets, indirectly affecting UK gilt markets. As always, the interplay between domestic and international events remains crucial for understanding rate movements.

Calendar Events

TODAY’S RELEASES:

No significant economic releases scheduled.

REMAINING TODAY:

No significant economic releases scheduled.

THIS WEEK AHEAD:

• Tomorrow: GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY - 00:01 - Forecast: 0.01
• Tomorrow: GBP Index-linked Treasury Gilt 2035 Auction - 10:00
• Wednesday: GBP BoE Taylor Speech - Low impact
• Wednesday: GBP Treasury Gilt 2035 Auction - Low impact
• Thursday: GBP RICS House Price Balance - 00:01 - Forecast: -0.16
• Thursday: GBP Balance of Trade - 07:00 - Forecast: -3.50B
• Thursday: GBP GDP MoM - 07:00 - Forecast: -0.1%
• Thursday: GBP GDP 3-Month Avg - 07:00 - Forecast: -0.1%
• Thursday: GBP GDP YoY - 07:00 - Forecast: 0.8%

This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and you should always verify current rates directly with the PWLB or through official channels before making borrowing decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Until next time, keep your treasury hats on and your rates in check!