PWLB briefing

Morning Rate Update

· By , PWLBtoday

Headline

PWLB Rates: A Gentle Breeze in the Treasury Market

Notice Details

PWLB Interest Rate Notice Number 015/26, reset at 09:29 AM on 13 January 2026.

Maturity Rates

  • 1y: 4.57% (+1)
  • 3y: 4.70% (+1)
  • 5y: 4.89% (0)
  • 10y: 5.45% (0)
  • 25y: 6.06% (-1)
  • 50y: 5.84% (-1)

Notably, the 1-year and 3-year rates have ticked up by 1 basis point, while the 25-year and 50-year rates have seen a slight decline of 1 basis point. It seems the long-term rates are taking a breather.

Market Context

The current yield curve reflects a slight upward shift in the short end, with 1-year and 3-year rates increasing, while longer maturities remain stable or slightly lower. Today’s economic data includes the BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY, which reported an actual of 0.01%, matching the forecast and previous value, indicating stable retail conditions. In the news, over half of OECD countries are experiencing a slowdown in food inflation, which may influence broader economic sentiment. Additionally, geopolitical tensions surrounding tariffs on Iran are causing ripples in the oil markets, potentially affecting inflation expectations and, by extension, interest rates. Overall, the market appears to be in a wait-and-see mode, with little significant movement in the PWLB rates.

Calendar Events

TODAY’S RELEASES:

  • GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY - Actual: 0.01, Forecast: 0.01, Previous: 0.01

REMAINING TODAY:

  • GBP Index-linked Treasury Gilt 2035 Auction - Due later today

THIS WEEK AHEAD:

  • Tomorrow, 08:00: GBP BoE Taylor Speech - Low impact
  • Tomorrow, 10:00: GBP Treasury Gilt 2035 Auction - Low impact
  • Tomorrow, 15:30: GBP BoE Ramsden Speech - Low impact
  • Thursday, 19th: GBP RICS House Price Balance - Forecast: -0.16
  • Thursday, 19th: GBP Balance of Trade - Forecast: -3.50B
  • Thursday, 19th: GBP GDP MoM - Forecast: -0.1%
  • Thursday, 19th: GBP GDP 3-Month Avg - Forecast: -0.1%
  • Thursday, 19th: GBP GDP YoY - Forecast: 0.8%
  • Thursday, 19th: GBP Industrial Production MoM - Forecast: -0.00
  • Thursday, 19th: GBP Goods Trade Balance - Forecast: -19.80B

This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and you should always verify current rates directly with the PWLB or through official channels before making borrowing decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Until next time, keep your treasury operations as smooth as a well-oiled machine!

All briefings for 13 January 2026 · January 2026 archive · All PWLB briefings