Morning Rate Update

Headline: Rates Hold Steady, Gilt Markets Take a Breather

PWLB Interest Rate Notice Number 021/26 was released today, January 16, 2026, at 09:30 AM.

Maturity Rates

• 1y: 4.59% (+3bps)
• 3y: 4.72% (+4bps)
• 5y: 4.92% (+5bps)
• 10y: 5.46% (+3bps)
• 25y: 6.08% (+3bps)
• 50y: 5.87% (+3bps)

The 5-year rate saw a notable increase of 5 basis points, while the rest of the maturities experienced minor adjustments, keeping the overall curve relatively stable.

Market Context

The current yield curve reflects a modest upward shift, particularly in the shorter to medium maturities, indicating some market responsiveness to recent economic data and global events. Today, there are no significant GBP releases reported, but the economic calendar shows that the upcoming week includes key employment data, which could influence market sentiment. In the news, global markets are experiencing a quiet phase, with analysts noting volatility in commodities rather than in interest rates. This calmness in the gilt markets may be a reflection of broader economic stability, despite underlying concerns about inflation and geopolitical tensions. Overall, the PWLB rates remain closely tied to these market dynamics, with little change observed today.

Calendar Events

Today’s Releases:

• No significant economic releases scheduled.

Remaining Today:

• No significant economic releases scheduled.

This Week Ahead:

• Tuesday 07:00: GBP Average Earnings excl. Bonus - Forecast: 4.5%
• Tuesday 07:00: GBP Employment Change - Forecast: -25k
• Tuesday 07:00: GBP Claimant Count Change - Forecast: 20.50k
• Tuesday 07:00: GBP Average Earnings incl. Bonus - Forecast: 4.5%
• Tuesday 07:00: GBP HMRC Payrolls Change - Forecast: -20k
• Tuesday 07:00: GBP Unemployment Rate - Forecast: 5.1%
• Wednesday 07:00: GBP PPI Output YoY - Forecast: 0.03
• Wednesday 07:00: GBP PPI Output MoM - Forecast: 0
• Wednesday 07:00: GBP PPI Core Output MoM - Forecast: 0.00

This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and you should always verify current rates directly with the PWLB or through official channels before making borrowing decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Until next time, keep your treasury operations as smooth as a well-oiled machine!