Afternoon Rate Update

Good afternoon! Here’s your Local Authority Treasury update following the latest PWLB notice.

Headline: Rates Take a Slight Dip: PWLB Shows Mixed Signals

Notice Time: 12:30 PM

Maturity Rates

• 1y: 4.58% (-1bps)
• 2y: 4.66% (+1bps)
• 3y: 4.75% (+1bps)
• 5y: 4.97% (+1bps)
• 10y: 5.54% (+2bps)
• 25y: 6.18% (+3bps)
• 50y: 5.96% (+3bps)

The 1-year rate has decreased by 1 basis point, while the longer maturities have seen slight increases, indicating a mixed sentiment in the market.

Afternoon Context

Since this morning, the UK labour market data has been released, showing the unemployment rate holding steady at 5.1%, with average earnings growth slightly below expectations at 4.5% (forecast: 4.5%, previous: 4.6%). The employment change was notably positive at 82k (forecast: -25k), suggesting some resilience in the job market. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding US tariffs linked to Greenland, continue to create uncertainty in global markets, impacting investor sentiment. Overall, these developments may keep gilt yields under pressure as the market digests the implications of the latest economic indicators.

Calendar Events

Today's Releases:

• GBP Average Earnings excl. Bonus: Actual: 4.5% (Forecast: 4.5%, Previous: 4.6%)
• GBP Employment Change: Actual: 82k (Forecast: -25k, Previous: -16k)
• GBP Claimant Count Change: Actual: 17.90k (Forecast: 20.50k, Previous: -3.30k)
• GBP Average Earnings incl. Bonus: Actual: 4.7% (Forecast: 4.5%, Previous: 4.8%)
• GBP Unemployment Rate: Actual: 5.1% (Forecast: 5.1%, Previous: 5.1%)

Remaining Today:

• No further significant economic releases today.

This Week Ahead:

• Tomorrow, 21st January: GBP PPI Output YoY - Forecast: 0.03
• Tomorrow, 21st January: GBP Inflation Rate YoY - Forecast: 3.1%

This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and you should always verify current rates directly with the PWLB or through official channels before making borrowing decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Keep calm and carry on borrowing wisely!