Morning Rate Update

Headline: Rates on the Rise: PWLB Sees Notable Increases Across the Board

Notice Date: 20 January 2026
Reset Time: 09:04 AM

Maturity Rates

• 1y: 4.59% (+2bps)
• 3y: 4.74% (+3bps)
• 5y: 4.96% (+5bps)
• 10y: 5.52% (+5bps)
• 25y: 6.15% (+6bps)
• 50y: 5.93% (+5bps)

Notably, the 5-year and 10-year rates both increased by 5 basis points, reflecting a more pronounced upward movement in the mid-range maturities.

Market Context

Today's PWLB rates indicate a general upward trend, particularly in the mid to long-term maturities. The 5-year and 10-year rates have both seen a significant increase of 5bps, suggesting a shift in market sentiment. In terms of economic data, the UK unemployment rate remains stable at 5.1%, with average earnings growth slightly cooling to 4.7%, which is above forecasts. This data is crucial as it may influence the Bank of England's policy decisions moving forward. Additionally, the ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly surrounding US tariffs linked to Greenland, have created a ripple effect in global markets, contributing to the cautious sentiment among investors. Overall, the combination of stable employment figures and external pressures is shaping the current borrowing landscape.

Calendar Events

Today's Releases:

• GBP Average Earnings excl. Bonus: Actual: 4.5% (Forecast: 4.5%, Previous: 4.6%)
• GBP Employment Change: Actual: 82k (Forecast: -25k, Previous: -16k)
• GBP Claimant Count Change: Actual: 17.90k (Forecast: 20.50k, Previous: -3.30k)
• GBP Average Earnings incl. Bonus: Actual: 4.7% (Forecast: 4.5%, Previous: 4.8%)
• GBP Unemployment Rate: Actual: 5.1% (Forecast: 5.1%, Previous: 5.1%)

Remaining Today:

• No significant economic releases scheduled.

This Week Ahead:

• Tomorrow, 21st January: GBP PPI Output YoY - Forecast: 0.03
• Tomorrow, 21st January: GBP Inflation Rate YoY - Forecast: 3.1%

This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and you should always verify current rates directly with the PWLB or through official channels before making borrowing decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Until next time, keep your treasury operations smooth and your rates low!