Morning Rate Update

Headline: Rates Take a Gentle Dip, But Don’t Hold Your Breath!

PWLB Interest Rate Notice Number 027/26 was released on January 21, 2026, at 09:04 AM.

Maturity Rates:

• 1y: 4.55% (-3bps)
• 3y: 4.71% (-4bps)
• 5y: 4.93% (-4bps)
• 10y: 5.49% (-5bps)
• 25y: 6.12% (-6bps)
• 50y: 5.90% (-6bps)

Rates have generally eased, with the 25-year and 50-year maturities seeing a notable drop of 6 basis points. However, the overall movement remains modest, with most rates shifting less than 5bps.

Market Context:

The yield curve appears to be flattening slightly, as shorter maturities are seeing smaller reductions compared to longer ones. Today’s inflation figures revealed a rise to 3.4%, surpassing forecasts of 3.1%, which could influence future monetary policy decisions by the Bank of England. In the news, concerns over global economic stability persist, particularly with rising tensions surrounding US trade policies and their implications for UK markets. Additionally, the ongoing volatility in Japanese bond markets continues to ripple through global debt, contributing to cautious sentiment among investors.

Calendar Events:

TODAY’S RELEASES:

• GBP Inflation Rate YoY - Actual: 3.4% (Forecast: 3.1%, Previous: 3.2%) - This significant increase could pressure the Bank of England to reconsider its interest rate strategy.

REMAINING TODAY:

• 11:00 - GBP CBI Business Optimism Index - Forecast: -27
• 11:00 - GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders - Forecast: -28
• 14:15 - GBP BoE Woods Speech

THIS WEEK AHEAD:

• Tomorrow: GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks - Forecast: -15B
• Tomorrow: GBP CBI Distributive Trades - Forecast: -57
• Friday: GBP Gfk Consumer Confidence - Forecast: -17
• Friday: GBP Retail Sales YoY - Forecast: 0.01
• Friday: GBP S&P Global Services PMI Flash - Forecast: 51.5

This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and you should always verify current rates directly with the PWLB or through official channels before making borrowing decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Until next time, keep your treasury operations as smooth as a well-oiled machine!