Morning Rate Update

Headline

PWLB Rates Hold Steady, But Not Without a Few Nibbles

Notice Details

Today's PWLB Interest Rate Notice is Number 031/26, with rates reset at 09:03 AM on January 23, 2026.

Maturity Rates

• 1y: 4.57% (0)
• 3y: 4.74% (0)
• 5y: 4.96% (-1)
• 10y: 5.53% (-1)
• 25y: 6.15% (-2)
• 50y: 5.93% (-2)

Rates have mostly held steady, with only minor adjustments of 1-2 basis points across the longer maturities. It seems the market is taking a breather today.

Market Context

The yield curve remains relatively flat, with the shorter maturities showing little change while the longer maturities have seen slight declines. Today's economic data includes the Gfk Consumer Confidence at -16, which is better than the forecast of -17, indicating a slight improvement in consumer sentiment. Additionally, retail sales showed a modest increase of 0.03% year-on-year, surpassing the forecast of 0.01%. In the news, gilts are facing pressure as they head for their worst week since November, driven by political uncertainties. This backdrop may be influencing the slight downward adjustments in longer-term PWLB rates.

Calendar Events

TODAY’S RELEASES:

• GBP Gfk Consumer Confidence - Actual: -16 (Forecast: -17, Previous: -17)
• GBP Retail Sales YoY - Actual: 0.03% (Forecast: 0.01%, Previous: 1.8%*)

REMAINING TODAY:

• No significant economic releases scheduled.

THIS WEEK AHEAD:

• Tuesday 00:01: GBP BRC Shop Price Inflation - Forecast: 0.8%
• Tuesday 10:00: GBP Treasury Gilt 2033 Auction
• Thursday 00:01: GBP Car Production YoY - Forecast: 0.07%
• Friday 07:00: GBP Nationwide Housing Prices MoM - Forecast: 0.6%
• Friday 07:00: GBP Nationwide Housing Prices YoY - Forecast: 1.5%
• Friday 09:30: GBP Mortgage Lending - Forecast: 4.60B
• Friday 09:30: GBP Net Lending to Individuals MoM - Forecast: 4.20B
• Friday 09:30: GBP Mortgage Approvals - Forecast: 64.40k
• Friday 09:30: GBP BoE Consumer Credit - Forecast: 1.90B
• Friday 09:30: GBP M4 Money Supply MoM - Forecast: 0.01

This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and you should always verify current rates directly with the PWLB or through official channels before making borrowing decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Until next time, keep your rates low and your spirits high!