PWLB briefing

Morning PWLB Predictions

· By , PWLBtoday

Headline

Gilt Yields Dip as 1Y Sees Notable 6bp Drop; PWLB Predictions Reflect Volatility

Gilt Market Analysis

The UK gilt market is experiencing a risk-off sentiment today, with yields generally declining across various tenors. The 1-year gilt yield has decreased by 6bps to 3.638%, reflecting a notable shift in investor sentiment. In the belly of the curve, the 10-year yield is down by 3bps to 4.490%, while the long end sees the 30-year yield falling 5bps to 5.219%. This movement is primarily driven by a lack of significant economic data releases today, leading to a cautious approach among investors.

PWLB Reset Predictions

  • 1y: predicted 4.59% [-1bp from current]
  • 5y: predicted 5.00% [0bp from current]
  • 10y: predicted 5.55% [0bp from current]
  • 20y: predicted 6.08% [-1bp from current]
  • 30y: predicted 6.19% [0bp from current]
  • 50y: predicted 5.95% [0bp from current]

Context

The predictions reflect the current movements in gilt yields, which are influenced by the overall market sentiment and the absence of impactful economic data releases today.

Calendar Events

Releases So Far Today

  • No relevant releases reported so far.

Remaining Today

  • No relevant releases scheduled for the remainder of today.

This Week Ahead

  • Tomorrow 00:01: GBP BRC Shop Price Inflation - Forecast: 0.8%
  • Tomorrow 10:00: GBP Treasury Gilt 2033 Auction
  • Thursday 00:01: GBP Car Production YoY - Forecast: 6.7%
  • Friday 07:00: GBP Nationwide Housing Prices MoM - Forecast: 0.6%
  • Friday 07:00: GBP Nationwide Housing Prices YoY - Forecast: 1.5%
  • Friday 09:30: GBP Mortgage Lending - Forecast: 4.60B
  • Friday 09:30: GBP Net Lending to Individuals MoM - Forecast: 4.20B
  • Friday 09:30: GBP Mortgage Approvals - Forecast: 64.40k
  • Friday 09:30: GBP BoE Consumer Credit - Forecast: 1.90B
  • Friday 09:30: GBP M4 Money Supply MoM - Forecast: 0.01

This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and you should always verify current rates directly with the PWLB or through official channels before making borrowing decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Until next time, keep your treasury operations sharp and your borrowing strategies sharper!

All briefings for 26 January 2026 · January 2026 archive · All PWLB briefings