Morning Rate Update

Headline

PWLB Rates Hold Steady, Leaving Borrowers in a Bit of a Lull

Notice Details

PWLB Interest Rate Notice Number 039/26, effective from 09:10 on 29 January 2026.

Maturity Rates

• 1y: 4.60% (0)
• 3y: 4.81% (1)
• 5y: 5.04% (1)
• 10y: 5.61% (2)
• 25y: 6.24% (3)
• 50y: 6.03% (3)

Market Context

The yield curve remains relatively flat, with only minor adjustments across maturities. The 1-year rate is unchanged, while the 3-year and 5-year rates have seen slight increases of 1 basis point each. The 10-year rate has also moved up by 2 basis points, indicating a modest upward pressure on longer-term borrowing costs. Today’s data includes the GBP Car Production YoY, which came in at 0.18%, surpassing the forecast of 0.07% and the previous figure of -0.14%. This positive surprise may provide some support for the gilt market, although broader economic themes are currently dominated by geopolitical tensions and ongoing discussions around central bank policies. Notably, the Federal Reserve has held rates steady, which could influence investor sentiment towards UK gilts.

Calendar Events

TODAY’S RELEASES:

• No significant economic releases scheduled.

REMAINING TODAY:

• No significant economic releases scheduled.

THIS WEEK AHEAD:

• Tomorrow, 07:00: GBP Nationwide Housing Prices MoM - Forecast: 0.6%
• Tomorrow, 07:00: GBP Nationwide Housing Prices YoY - Forecast: 1.5%
• Tomorrow, 09:30: GBP Mortgage Lending - Forecast: 4.60B
• Tomorrow, 09:30: GBP Net Lending to Individuals MoM - Forecast: 4.20B
• Tomorrow, 09:30: GBP Mortgage Approvals - Forecast: 64.40k
• Tomorrow, 09:30: GBP BoE Consumer Credit - Forecast: 1.90B
• Tomorrow, 09:30: GBP M4 Money Supply MoM - Forecast: 0.01
• Monday, 09:30 (2026-02-02): GBP S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final - Forecast: 51.6
• Tuesday, 10:00 (2026-02-03): GBP Treasury Gilt 2035 Auction
• Wednesday, 09:30 (2026-02-04): GBP DMP 1Y CPI Expectations - Previous: 3.2%

This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and you should always verify current rates directly with the PWLB or through official channels before making borrowing decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Keep calm and carry on borrowing!