PWLB briefing

Morning PWLB Predictions

· By , PWLBtoday

Headline

Gilt Yields Dip as 1Y Sees Notable 2bp Drop Amid PWLB Volatility!

Gilt Market Analysis

The gilt market is experiencing mixed movements this morning, with notable changes in short and long tenors. The 1Y gilt yield has decreased by 2bps to 3.606%, reflecting a risk-off sentiment as investors await key economic data. Meanwhile, the 10Y yield has risen by 1bp to 4.568%, indicating some resilience in the belly of the curve. In the long end, the 30Y yield has increased by 2bps to 5.369%, driven by ongoing political uncertainties and market reactions to recent economic releases.

PWLB Reset Predictions

  • 1y: predicted 4.56% ([-4]bp from current)
  • 5y: predicted 5.00% ([-3]bp from current)
  • 10y: predicted 5.61% ([-2]bp from current)
  • 20y: predicted 6.19% ([-1]bp from current)
  • 30y: predicted 6.30% ([-1]bp from current)
  • 50y: predicted 6.08% ([-1]bp from current)

Context

The predictions reflect the recent movements in gilt yields, influenced by today’s economic data releases and ongoing political developments. The market is particularly focused on the upcoming Bank of England announcements, which may further impact PWLB rates.

Calendar Events

Releases So Far Today

  • GBP New Car Sales YoY: Actual: 3.4%, Forecast: 2.0%, Previous: 3.9% (LOW impact) - This indicates stronger consumer demand, which could influence economic sentiment.
  • GBP S&P Global Construction PMI: Actual: 46.4, Forecast: 42.5, Previous: 40.1 (MED impact) - A higher PMI suggests a potential recovery in the construction sector, which may support gilt stability.

Remaining Today

  • 12:00: GBP Official Bank Rate (Forecast: 3.8%) - This is a HIGH impact release that may affect the 12:30 PWLB reset.
  • 12:00: GBP MPC Meeting Minutes - HIGH impact.
  • 12:00: GBP BoE Monetary Policy Report - MED impact.
  • 12:00: GBP BoE MPC Vote Unchanged - MED impact (Previous: 4).
  • 12:00: GBP BoE MPC Vote Hike - MED impact (Previous: 0).
  • 12:00: GBP BoE MPC Vote Cut - MED impact (Previous: 5).
  • 14:00: GBP DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (Previous: 3.2%) - LOW impact.
  • 14:00: GBP DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (Previous: 0.04) - LOW impact.

This Week Ahead

  • Tomorrow 07:00: GBP Halifax House Price Index (Forecast: 0.000).
  • Tomorrow 07:00: GBP Halifax House Price Index MoM (Forecast: 0.4%).
  • Tomorrow 10:00: GBP BBA Mortgage Rate (Forecast: 6.7%).
  • Tuesday 00:01 (2026-02-10): GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (Forecast: 1.3%).
  • Tuesday 10:00 (2026-02-10): GBP Treasury Gilt 2031 Auction - LOW impact.
  • Thursday 00:01 (2026-02-12): GBP RICS House Price Balance (Forecast: -0.12).
  • Thursday 07:00 (2026-02-12): GBP Balance of Trade (Forecast: -6B).
  • Thursday 07:00 (2026-02-12): GBP Industrial Production MoM (Forecast: -0.2%).
  • Thursday 07:00 (2026-02-12): GBP GDP MoM (Forecast: 0.1%).
  • Thursday 07:00 (2026-02-12): GBP Construction Output (Forecast: -0.01).

This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and you should always verify current rates directly with the PWLB or through official channels before making borrowing decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wishing you a productive day ahead in treasury management!

All briefings for 5 February 2026 · February 2026 archive · All PWLB briefings