PWLB briefing

Morning PWLB Predictions

· By , PWLBtoday

Headline

Gilt Yields Dip as 1Y Sees Notable Drop of 3bps; PWLB Predictions Reflect Volatility

Gilt Market Analysis

The gilt market is experiencing a downward trend in yields across various tenors. The 1Y yield has decreased by 3bps to 3.552%, while the 5Y yield has also seen a slight decline of 1bp to 3.795%. In the belly of the curve, the 10Y yield has dropped 2bps to 4.372%, reflecting a cautious market sentiment driven by recent economic data indicating a fall in inflation to 3.0%. This decline in inflation is raising expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Bank of England, contributing to a risk-off sentiment in the market.

PWLB Reset Predictions

  • 1y: predicted 4.49% (0bp from current)
  • 5y: predicted 4.85% (-1bp from current)
  • 10y: predicted 5.45% (-1bp from current)
  • 20y: predicted 6.02% (-1bp from current)
  • 30y: predicted 6.12% (-1bp from current)
  • 50y: predicted 5.91% (-1bp from current)

Context

The predictions reflect the recent movements in gilt yields and the impact of today’s inflation data, which has met forecasts, suggesting a stable outlook for the PWLB rates in the near term.

Calendar Events

Releases So Far Today

  • GBP Inflation Rate YoY: Actual: 3.0%, Forecast: 3.0%, Previous: 3.4% (HIGH impact) - This release is crucial as it directly influences expectations for interest rate adjustments by the Bank of England.

Remaining Today

  • No further releases scheduled for today.

This Week Ahead

  • Friday 11:00: GBP Retail Sales MoM (forecast: 0.2%)
  • Friday 11:00: GBP S&P Global Services PMI Flash (forecast: 53.6)
  • Friday 11:00: GBP S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (forecast: 51.9)

This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and you should always verify current rates directly with the PWLB or through official channels before making borrowing decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stay informed and keep your treasury operations running smoothly!

All briefings for 18 February 2026 · February 2026 archive · All PWLB briefings