Afternoon Rate Update

Headline

PWLB Rates Shift Slightly: A Quiet Afternoon with Minor Adjustments

Notice Details

PWLB Interest Rate Notice Number 072/26
Reset: PM
Time: 12:30 on 20 February 2026

Maturity Rates

• 1y: 4.48% (+1bps)
• 3y: 4.61% (0bps)
• 5y: 4.83% (+1bps)
• 10y: 5.42% (0bps)
• 25y: 6.07% (0bps)
• 50y: 5.88% (0bps)

The rates have seen minor increases, with the 1-year and 5-year rates rising by 1 basis point each, indicating a slight uptick in borrowing costs.

Afternoon Context

Since this morning, the economic landscape has shifted slightly with several data releases. The 10:30am release of GBP Retail Sales MoM showed an actual increase of 0.02, surpassing the forecast of 0.00, while GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks reported a surplus of £30.40 billion, significantly higher than the forecast of £19 billion. Additionally, the S&P Global Composite PMI Flash came in at 53.9, above the forecast of 53.3, indicating a positive outlook for the services sector. Despite these encouraging figures, geopolitical tensions, particularly surrounding Iran, continue to loom over market sentiment, keeping gilt yields relatively stable.

Calendar Events

RELEASES SO FAR TODAY:

• GBP Retail Sales MoM - Actual: 0.02 (Forecast: 0.00) (Previous: 0.00) - Indicates stronger consumer spending.
• GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks - Actual: 30.40B (Forecast: 19B) (Previous: -13.40B) - A significant surplus that could affect market dynamics.
• GBP S&P Global Composite PMI Flash - Actual: 53.9 (Forecast: 53.3) (Previous: 53.7) - Suggests a positive outlook for the services sector.

REMAINING TODAY:

• No further significant economic releases today.

THIS WEEK AHEAD:

• Tuesday 10:00: GBP Treasury Gilt 2033 Auction - Previous: 4.3%
• Tuesday 11:00: GBP CBI Distributive Trades - Forecast: -30 (Previous: -17)
• Friday 00:01: GBP Car Production YoY - Forecast: 0.05 (Previous: 0.18)
• Friday 00:01: GBP Gfk Consumer Confidence - Forecast: -17 (Previous: -16)
• Friday 07:00: GBP Nationwide Housing Prices YoY - Forecast: 1.8% (Previous: 1.0%)
• Friday 07:00: GBP Nationwide Housing Prices MoM - Forecast: 0.3% (Previous: 0.3%)

This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and you should always verify current rates directly with the PWLB or through official channels before making borrowing decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Until next time, may your treasury operations be as steady as a well-tuned clock!