Morning Rate Update

Headline

PWLB Rates Take a Gentle Dip: A Day of Minor Adjustments

Notice Details

PWLB Interest Rate Notice Number 071/26
Reset: AM
Time: 09:03 on 20 February 2026

Maturity Rates

• 1y: 4.47% (-2bps)
• 3y: 4.61% (-3bps)
• 5y: 4.82% (-5bps)
• 10y: 5.42% (-5bps)
• 25y: 6.07% (-5bps)
• 50y: 5.88% (-6bps)

While the rates have dipped slightly, the movements are modest, with no significant shifts over 5bps, keeping the market relatively stable.

Market Context

The yield curve remains relatively flat, with slight decreases across all maturities. Today's economic data shows that UK retail sales grew by 1.8% in January, exceeding forecasts, which could indicate a resilient consumer sector. Additionally, the UK has recorded a remarkable budget surplus of £30.4 billion in January, significantly higher than expected. This surplus may influence market sentiment positively, although the geopolitical landscape remains tense, particularly with rising oil prices due to US-Iran tensions. Overall, the market appears to be digesting these mixed signals with caution, as investors weigh the implications for future borrowing costs.

Calendar Events

TODAY’S RELEASES:

• GBP Retail Sales MoM - Actual: 0.02 (Forecast: 0.00) (Previous: 0.00) - Indicates stronger consumer spending.
• GBP Retail Sales YoY - Actual: 0.04 (Forecast: 0.03) (Previous: 1.9%) - Suggests a slight improvement in year-over-year sales.
• GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks - Actual: 30.40B (Forecast: 19B) (Previous: -13.40B) - A significant surplus that could affect market dynamics.

REMAINING TODAY:

• No significant economic releases scheduled.

THIS WEEK AHEAD:

• Tuesday 10:00: GBP Treasury Gilt 2033 Auction - Previous: 4.3%
• Tuesday 11:00: GBP CBI Distributive Trades - Forecast: -30 (Previous: -17)
• Friday 00:01: GBP Car Production YoY - Forecast: 0.05 (Previous: 0.18)
• Friday 00:01: GBP Gfk Consumer Confidence - Forecast: -17 (Previous: -16)
• Friday 07:00: GBP Nationwide Housing Prices YoY - Forecast: 1.8% (Previous: 1.0%)
• Friday 07:00: GBP Nationwide Housing Prices MoM - Forecast: 0.3% (Previous: 0.3%)

This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and you should always verify current rates directly with the PWLB or through official channels before making borrowing decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Until next time, keep your treasury operations as smooth as a well-oiled machine!