End of Day Wrap-Up

UK gilt yields rose sharply across the curve today, with front-end tenors leading, while PWLB rates ended modestly lower or unchanged across most maturities.

GILT MOVE SUMMARY

• 1y: 3.651% (+13bp) — Front-end led the move higher.
• 5y: 3.878% (+8bp) — Short and intermediate yields rose notably.
• 10y: 4.369% (+7bp) — Belly of the curve also saw significant increases.
• 30y: 5.081% (+7bp) — Long end followed the move, with similar magnitude.

PWLB CLOSE SNAPSHOT

• 1y: 4.49% (-1)
• 5y: 4.76% (-2)
• 10y: 5.33% (-1)
• 25y: 5.99% (-1)
• 50y: 5.81% (unch)

WHAT DROVE TODAY

• Geopolitical escalation in the Middle East dominated market sentiment, with widespread coverage of US and Israeli strikes on Iran and retaliatory actions. This triggered a surge in oil and gas prices and heightened risk aversion, as evidenced by headlines such as “Oil prices surge amid escalating Middle East tensions and supply risks” and “Gas Prices Surge as Qatar Shuts World’s Largest LNG Export Plant.”
• UK economic data released today was mixed and had limited market impact: Nationwide Housing Prices YoY (Actual: 1.0%, Forecast: 1.1%, Previous: 1.0%), Mortgage Approvals (Actual: 60k, Forecast: 62.5k, Previous: 61.01k), and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Actual: 51.7, Forecast: 52, Previous: 51.8).
• There is no evidence in the news flow or data to explain the divergence between rising gilt yields and the modest decline in PWLB rates.

WHAT THIS MEANS

• PWLB rates ended slightly lower across most maturities, despite a marked rise in underlying gilt yields.
• Long-end PWLB rates (30–50y) were unchanged or marginally lower, while short and medium maturities saw small declines.
• Borrowing costs via PWLB finished the day modestly improved, even as market volatility increased.

NEXT ON THE DIARY

• GBP Spring Economic Statement — Tomorrow (time not specified), medium impact.
• GBP BRC Shop Price Inflation — Tomorrow 00:01, Forecast: 1.7% (Previous: 1.5%).

Markets remain sensitive to geopolitical developments and upcoming UK fiscal events.

This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and you should always verify current rates directly with the PWLB or through official channels before making borrowing decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.