Morning PWLB Predictions

PWLB Reset Preview – 11:30am, 3 March 2026

UK gilt yields have risen sharply across the curve this morning, indicating a notable upward reset for PWLB rates at 12:30.

Gilts Snapshot

• 2y: 3.822% (+18bp) — front-end leads, sharpest move
• 10y: 4.527% (+15bp) — belly up in line with curve
• 30y: 5.213% (+13bp) — long end higher, but less pronounced

PWLB 12:30 Reset — Predictions

• 1y: predicted 4.70% (+3bp from current)
• 5y: predicted 4.99% (+5bp from current)
• 10y: predicted 5.52% (+4bp from current)
• 20y: predicted 6.08% (+5bp from current)
• 30y: predicted 6.17% (+4bp from current)
• 50y: predicted 5.97% (+5bp from current)

What’s Driving This

• Escalating conflict in the Middle East is driving a global bond sell-off, with UK and US yields both sharply higher.
• UK gas prices have surged nearly 100% since the weekend, and Brent crude is up over 10% in two days, intensifying inflation concerns.
• Market commentary highlights traders reducing bets on Bank of England rate cuts as inflation risks rise.
• No single UK data release is the clear driver; moves are primarily geopolitically and commodity-driven.

Calendar

• BRC Shop Price Inflation (LOW impact) — Actual: 1.1% vs Forecast: 1.7% vs Previous: 1.5% — below expectations, but not a market mover today
• 12:30 — Spring Economic Statement (MED impact) — Forecast not available; could influence rates if new fiscal measures or guidance emerge
• Next 48h: No HIGH impact UK releases scheduled

Markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines and energy price developments; please monitor for further updates around the Spring Statement.

This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and you should always verify current rates directly with the PWLB or through official channels before making borrowing decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.