Morning PWLB Predictions

PWLB Reset Preview – 11:00, 5 March 2026

Top line:
Gilt yields are moderately higher across the curve so far today; PWLB reset predictions reflect a small upward move at 12:30.

Gilts Snapshot

• 2y: 3.754% (+5bp) — front-end leading gains
• 10y: 4.484% (+4bp) — belly firmer, but less than short
• 30y: 5.193% (+3bp) — long end up, but lagging the front

PWLB 12:30 Reset — Predictions

• 1y: predicted 4.67% (+2bp from current)
• 5y: predicted 4.97% (+2bp from current)
• 10y: predicted 5.51% (+1bp from current)
• 20y: predicted 6.09% (+3bp from current)
• 30y: predicted 6.19% (+2bp from current)
• 50y: predicted 5.99% (+3bp from current)

What’s Driving This

• Middle East conflict continues to drive global risk sentiment and energy price volatility, with several news sources citing oil and gas disruptions and inflation concerns.
• UK S&P Global Construction PMI missed expectations (44.5 actual vs 47 forecast), indicating weaker activity, but this has not offset upward pressure from global factors.
• US and European markets remain volatile on inflation and energy supply fears, as highlighted in multiple news items.
• No single clear domestic data driver; moves appear mainly linked to international developments and risk repricing.

Calendar

• Releases so far today:
  • S&P Global Construction PMI — 44.5 actual vs 47 forecast vs 46.4 previous (MED impact) — weaker construction activity, but not enough to counter global pressures on yields
• Still due today:
  • None scheduled for the remainder of today
• Next 48 hours (HIGH impact only):
  • Calendar is light over the next 48 hours.

PWLB rates are set to edge higher at the midday reset, reflecting the upward move in gilts amid ongoing geopolitical and inflation concerns.

This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and you should always verify current rates directly with the PWLB or through official channels before making borrowing decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.