End of Day Wrap-Up

UK gilt yields rose sharply across the curve today, resulting in modest upward adjustments to most PWLB rates by the close.

GILT MOVE SUMMARY

• 1y: 3.941% (+12bp) — Significant front-end rise, leading the move.
• 5y: 4.205% (+14bp) — Short and intermediate maturities saw pronounced increases.
• 10y: 4.684% (+14bp) — Belly of the curve moved in line with the front end.
• 30y: 5.346% (+11bp) — Long end also higher, though slightly less than the front and belly.

PWLB CLOSE SNAPSHOT

• 1y: 4.82% (-1bp)
• 5y: 5.14% (+1bp)
• 10y: 5.65% (+1bp)
• 25y: 6.26% (unch)
• 50y: 6.08% (+1bp)

PWLB rates saw only minor adjustments despite the pronounced gilt sell-off, with most maturities up by (+1bp) or unchanged, and a small decline at the very short end.

WHAT DROVE TODAY

• No UK economic data was released today.
• Market moves were dominated by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the escalation of the Iran war and its impact on global energy markets. News included a record 400 million barrel release from IEA oil reserves and continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Commentary highlighted volatility in global rates markets, with traders adjusting positions amid uncertainty over energy prices and inflation risks.

WHAT THIS MEANS

• Borrowing costs rose modestly across most PWLB maturities, with the largest increases at 5y, 10y, 40y, and 50y (+1bp).
• Short-term PWLB rates (1y, 2y) edged down or were flat, diverging from the sharp rise in short gilt yields.
• Longer-dated PWLB rates (25y, 30y) were unchanged or only marginally higher, despite double-digit increases in corresponding gilt yields.

NEXT ON THE DIARY

• Tomorrow 00:01: GBP RICS House Price Balance (MED impact) — Forecast: -0.08 (Prev: -0.10)
• Tomorrow 09:30: GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speech (MED impact)

Markets ended the day with higher gilt yields and slightly increased PWLB rates, reflecting heightened geopolitical risk and energy market volatility.

This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and you should always verify current rates directly with the PWLB or through official channels before making borrowing decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.