Morning PWLB Predictions

PWLB Reset Preview – 11:00, 11 March 2026

Gilt yields have moved sharply higher across the curve this morning; PWLB reset predictions reflect notable upward adjustments.

Gilts Snapshot

• 2y: 3.943% (+8bp) — front-end leading the move higher
• 10y: 4.630% (+8bp) — belly up in line with short end
• 30y: 5.303% (+7bp) — long end also firmer, curve broadly parallel

PWLB 12:30 Reset — Predictions

• 1y: predicted 4.81% (-3bp from current)
• 5y: predicted 5.11% (-2bp from current)
• 10y: predicted 5.62% (-2bp from current)
• 20y: predicted 6.15% (-3bp from current)
• 30y: predicted 6.27% (-1bp from current)
• 50y: predicted 6.04% (-3bp from current)

What’s Driving This

• News flow is dominated by heightened geopolitical risk and energy market volatility, with multiple reports of Middle East conflict, oil supply disruption, and emergency reserve releases.
• Mortgage rates and broader funding costs are rising in response to market turmoil linked to the Iran war and oil price swings.
• No single clear driver in today’s inputs; moves appear to reflect ongoing risk repricing and global market stress.

Calendar

• Releases so far today: None reported.
• Still due today: None scheduled; no further GBP events before the 12:30 reset.
• Next 48 hours (HIGH impact):
  • Tomorrow 00:01 — GBP RICS House Price Balance — Forecast: -0.08
  • Friday — GBP Manufacturing Production MoM — Forecast: 0.2%

PWLB rates at 12:30 are set to reflect a pronounced upward shift in gilt yields, with no domestic data releases to offset the impact of global risk factors this morning.

This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and you should always verify current rates directly with the PWLB or through official channels before making borrowing decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.