PWLB briefing

Morning PWLB Predictions

12 March 2026 · 18:32 · By Russell Tew, PWLBtoday

⚠ VOLATILITY ALERT — Gilt yields have surged 7–12bp across the curve, led by the long end, as markets react to the escalating Middle East conflict and its impact on oil prices and inflation expectations.

Sharp gilt sell-off so far today; expect a material upward reset at 12:30 PM.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

→ 5y: 4.311% (+11bp) — Front end up strongly, reflecting inflation and risk repricing.
→ 10y: 4.786% (+10bp) — Belly follows, matching the move in shorter tenors.
→ 30y: 5.462% (+12bp) — Long end leads, with the largest single-day move.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

→ 1y: predicted 4.91% (+3bp from current)
→ 5y: predicted 5.26% (+5bp from current)
→ 10y: predicted 5.77% (+4bp from current)
→ 20y: predicted 6.31% (+4bp from current)
→ 30y: predicted 6.41% (+4bp from current)
→ 50y: predicted 6.19% (+3bp from current)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

→ Escalating Middle East conflict — Multiple sources highlight the Iran war as causing the largest oil supply disruption in history, driving up global yields and inflation expectations.
→ Oil prices above $100 — Newsflow confirms Brent crude has breached $100, with knock-on effects for inflation and bond markets.
→ RICS House Price Balance — Actual -12 vs forecast -8, previous -10 (MED impact); weaker than expected but overshadowed by global events.
→ No other UK data surprises — Calendar and speeches have not offset the global risk-off tone.

CALENDAR

RELEASES SO FAR TODAY

→ RICS House Price Balance — Actual: -12 vs Forecast: -8 vs Previous: -10 (MED) — weaker than expected, but not the main market driver.
→ BoE Gov Bailey Speech — (MED) — no new policy signals reported.
→ Index-linked Treasury Gilt 2049 Auction — Actual: 2.02% vs Previous: 2.36% (LOW) — not market moving.
→ BoE White Speech — (LOW) — no impact.

STILL DUE TODAY

Nothing further scheduled today.

NEXT 48 HOURS

→ Fri 07:00 — Manufacturing Production MoM — Forecast: 0.2%
→ Fri 07:00 — Manufacturing Production YoY — Forecast: 1.0%
→ Fri 07:00 — GDP MoM — Forecast: 0.1%

A volatile session with global headlines firmly in the driving seat—expect the 12:30 reset to reflect these sharp moves.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If you’re reading this, you’re already ahead of the next reset.