PWLB briefing
Weekly Wrap-Up
Week in Review — 9 to 13 March 2026
| Maturity | Fri 6 Mar | Fri 13 Mar | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1y | 4.79% | 4.89% | +10bp |
| 2y | 4.89% | 5.03% | +14bp |
| 5y | 5.33% | 5.47% | +14bp |
| 10y | 5.84% | 5.97% | +13bp |
| 15y | 6.08% | 6.22% | +14bp |
| 20y | 6.20% | 6.33% | +13bp |
| 25y | 6.24% | 6.38% | +14bp |
| 30y | 6.26% | 6.40% | +14bp |
| 40y | 6.25% | 6.38% | +13bp |
| 50y | 6.06% | 6.19% | +13bp |
Friday figures reflect the 12:31 PM reset only. Gilts sold off a further 4–5bp into the afternoon close — this move is not yet in PWLB. Monday AM reset will open materially higher across all maturities.
What Happened — Day by Day
- →Mon 9 Mar — Oil hits $120/bbl, rates spike to weekly highs — The week opened in chaos. Brent crude hit nearly $120/bbl intraday — its highest since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 — as markets priced in a prolonged Hormuz closure. PWLB opened at 5.00% (1y) and 5.97% (10y). The G7 signalled readiness to release strategic petroleum reserves. Trump suggested the conflict would end 'very soon' by the afternoon, pulling oil off its peaks, but gilt yields closed the day sharply elevated.
- →Tue 10 Mar — The week's false dawn: Trump comments spark sharp gilt rally — The week's most dramatic single-session move — in the right direction. Oil fell toward $90/bbl on Trump's optimism; the PWLB AM reset reflected this directly with 1y falling to 4.76% (-19bp reset-to-reset) and 10y to 5.79% (-15bp). The week's best entry point for borrowers. By afternoon, Defence Secretary Hegseth contradicted Trump — the war would not end until the enemy was 'totally and decisively defeated' — and markets partially retraced.
- →Wed 11 Mar — IEA coordinates 400M barrel SPR release; brief stabilisation — Trump announced the IEA had agreed to coordinate the largest strategic petroleum reserve release in history. Rates stabilised with Wednesday resets showing 1y at 4.82–4.83% and 10y at 5.84–5.85%. The SPR announcement provided temporary relief but did not alter the supply picture — Hormuz remained closed.
- →Thu 12 Mar — Russian sanctions eased; Bailey non-event; GDP miss ignored — The US issued a 30-day waiver for Indian purchases of sanctioned Russian crude in a bid to cap energy prices. PWLB AM reset: 1y 4.90%, 10y 5.93%. Governor Bailey's speech delivered no policy signal. UK GDP printed 0.0% against a 0.2% forecast — services, manufacturing and industrial output all missed. For the third consecutive session, domestic data had zero market impact.
- →Fri 13 Mar — Brent back above $100, JOLTS beat, Iran vows to fight on — The week ended with the macro backdrop deteriorating. Brent settled at $103/bbl for a second consecutive close above $100 as Iran's new supreme leader publicly ruled out surrender. US JOLTS job openings beat at 6.95M vs 6.7M forecast, reducing Fed cut scope and pushing global yields higher into the close. The IEA estimated the war is cutting global supply by 8 million barrels per day.
The Intraweek Picture — Volatility and Curve
- →Intraweek range understates the chaos — The 10y PWLB ranged from 5.79% to 5.99% within the week — a 20bp spread. The 1y ranged from 4.76% to 5.00% — 24bp. The week-on-week table shows where rates ended up; it does not show the violent intraday moves driven by conflicting headlines from Washington and Tehran.
- →Bear steepening — a more concerning signal than last week's parallel shift — The short end (1–5y) ended the week up 10–14bp, sensitive to headlines and partially reversible on diplomatic news. The long end (15–50y) added 13–14bp and has been drifting structurally higher all week. A steepening curve driven by rising term premium and stagflation fears specifically penalises long-dated fixed borrowing.
- →Domestic data comprehensively sidelined — GDP, services, manufacturing, industrial output, RICS, Bailey speech — none of it moved the market. Gilt yields are being set entirely by energy prices and geopolitical headlines for a second consecutive week.
Week Ahead — Key Risk Events
- →Mon AM reset — first read of the new week — will capture Friday's full gilt close. Expect materially higher opening levels. This reset sets the baseline against which the rest of the week's moves are measured.
- →Wed 18 Mar 18:00 — Fed Funds Rate Decision — the single most consequential event for the global rates outlook next week. A hawkish hold would push gilts and PWLB to new cycle highs. A dovish pivot or cut signal would be the most powerful downward catalyst available to the market. Barclays specifically flagged central bank responses to the oil shock as the key variable to watch.
- →Geopolitical newsflow — the dominant variable — Iran's supreme leader has publicly vowed to continue fighting; Trump has sent conflicting signals about the conflict timeline. A ceasefire or Hormuz transit agreement would be the single most powerful rate catalyst — likely to remove 20–30bp from the long end quickly.
Treasurer's Note
Two weeks into the Iran war, the PWLB borrowing cost picture has shifted structurally. The 10y rate has moved from 5.56% pre-conflict to 5.97% at Friday's last reset — and will be higher still when Monday's AM reset captures Friday's gilt close. The short end has been the most volatile: Tuesday's 19bp single-session improvement shows how quickly rates can move on a diplomatic headline — and how quickly that can reverse. Three things matter next week. First, Monday's AM reset — the first clean read after a week of extreme volatility. Second, the Fed on Wednesday — a hawkish hold means further pressure; a dovish signal could deliver meaningful relief. Third, any substantive Hormuz development — the only event that could produce a sustained rate reversal. For authorities with borrowing planned in Q1 or Q2: monitor Monday's AM reset, assess the Fed on Wednesday, and avoid committing to long-dated fixed borrowing until there is greater clarity on whether the Hormuz closure is measured in days or weeks.
This commentary is for information only and does not constitute financial advice. Always verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before making borrowing decisions.