PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates reset lower this morning, with a notable 6–7bp drop across the curve and the 10–25 year tenors leading the move.
⚠ RATE ALERT — AM reset: PWLB rates down 6–7bp across all key maturities, led by the 7–25 year sector; move reflects a parallel shift lower amid ongoing global energy and inflation concerns.
PWLB curve drops 6–7bp: energy market nerves ease, but volatility lingers
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 4.86% | -2bp |
| 3y | 4.99% | -4bp |
| 5y | 5.15% | -6bp |
| 10y | 5.66% | -7bp |
| 25y | 6.28% | -7bp |
| 50y | 6.09% | -6bp |
Parallel shift lower: 5–7bp down across the curve, led by the 7–25 year sector.
What Moved
- → Belly and long end led — 5y to 25y maturities fell 6–7bp, with the 10y and 25y both down 7bp.
- → Short end less reactive — 1y rate down just 2bp, showing less sensitivity to the broader move.
- → Parallel shift — No major curve twist; the move is broad-based and uniform.
Context
- → Oil and gas prices have eased — Reports of Iraq resuming exports via Turkey and some moderation in energy prices have taken the edge off recent inflation fears.
- → No UK data released yet — The calendar is quiet so far this morning, with no domestic figures to drive gilts.
- → Market focus on global inflation risks — Ongoing Middle East conflict and energy supply uncertainty remain in the background, but today's move reflects a temporary easing in risk sentiment.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
No data released so far today.
Remaining Today
- → 10:00 EUR HICP Final MM: Forecast 0.7% (Prev: -0.6%)
- → 10:00 EUR HICP Final YY: Forecast 1.9% (Prev: 1.7%)
- → 18:00 USD Fed Funds Tgt Rate: Forecast unchanged at 5.5%
Next 48 Hours
- → Thu 2026-03-19 07:00: GBP ILO Unemployment Rate — Forecast: 5.3%
- → Thu 2026-03-19 12:00: GBP BOE Bank Rate — Forecast: 3.8%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — The PWLB curve has shifted down 6–7bp at the AM reset, with the 10–25 year area leading the move. The drop reflects a broad, parallel move lower as energy market nerves ease slightly, but volatility remains elevated. If you are watching for the next reset, keep in mind that global headlines and upcoming central bank decisions could quickly change the tone. Stay alert for further swings as the day develops.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here when the only thing flatter than the curve is the coffee in the finance office.