PWLB briefing

Morning PWLB Predictions

25 March 2026 · 11:31 · By Russell Tew, PWLBtoday

⚠ VOLATILITY ALERT — Gilt yields are sharply lower across the curve (-8bp to -12bp), led by the 10–40y sector, as markets react to hopes of a US-brokered Iran ceasefire and falling oil prices; expect a notable downward reset at 12:30.

Gilt yields are down 8–12bp at all key tenors; PWLB rates are set for a marked downward move at the PM reset.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

→ 2y: 4.388% (-11bp) — Short end drops in line with curve.
→ 10y: 4.856% (-12bp) — Belly leads the move lower.
→ 30y: 5.473% (-11bp) — Long end follows, curve broadly parallel.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

→ 1y: predicted 5.21% (unch from current)
→ 5y: predicted 5.41% (unch from current)
→ 10y: predicted 5.86% (unch from current)
→ 20y: predicted 6.37% (-1bp from current)
→ 30y: predicted 6.44% (-1bp from current)
→ 50y: predicted 6.23% (-1bp from current)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

→ Ceasefire hopes — Reports of a US-brokered Iran peace plan and falling oil prices are driving a global risk-on move and lower yields.
→ UK inflation steady — February CPI held at 3.0% (actual = forecast, prev 3.0%), offering no new upward pressure for gilts.
→ Energy market relief — Brent crude down 4–5% on ceasefire news, easing concerns over inflation and rate hikes.
→ No UK data surprise — Other UK releases (PPI, RPI, house prices) were mixed to soft, not challenging the downward move.

CALENDAR

RELEASES SO FAR TODAY

→ CPI (YoY) — 3.0% vs 3.0% vs 3.0% — (HIGH) — No surprise; inflation steady, no new pressure on gilts.
→ CPI (MoM) — 0.40% vs 0.40% vs -0.50% — (MEDIUM) — In line with forecast; no fresh inflation risk.
→ PPI Input (MoM) — 0.80% vs 0.50% vs 0.30% — (MEDIUM) — Slightly above forecast, but overshadowed by global news.

STILL DUE TODAY

→ 14:30 — USD Crude Oil Inventories — Forecast: -1.3M — Unlikely to affect 12:30 reset.
→ 23:20 — USD President Trump Speaks — After reset; not relevant for today’s PWLB fix.

NEXT 48 HOURS

→ Thu 12:30 — USD Initial Jobless Claims — Forecast: 211K

Markets are moving fast; check official PWLB rates after the reset for final pricing.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only every reset were this straightforward. Stay sharp.