PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates have dropped sharply across the curve at the AM reset, with double-digit declines from front to back—driven by a global bond rally as markets respond to escalating Middle East conflict and growth fears.
⚠ VOLATILITY ALERT — PWLB AM rates reset 10–14bp lower across all maturities, as global bonds surge on war-driven risk aversion and economic slowdown concerns.
PWLB plunges: double-digit drop as gilts surge on war and growth fears
PWLB Snapshot
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.24% | -13bp |
| 3y | 5.39% | -14bp |
| 5y | 5.51% | -14bp |
| 10y | 5.96% | -12bp |
| 25y | 6.53% | -10bp |
| 50y | 6.32% | -12bp |
Parallel shift lower: 10–14bp falls across the curve, front end leading.
What Moved
- → Front end and belly — 1y to 7y tenors dropped 13–14bp, leading the move.
- → Long end — 25y and 50y rates fell 10–12bp, matching the scale of the global rally.
- → No material curve twist — The drop is broad-based, not isolated to any segment.
Context
- → Global bond rally — Safe-haven demand surged as the Iran war escalated, with oil above $115 and equities down sharply; government bonds rallied worldwide.
- → UK data — BOE Consumer Credit came in at £1.9B (forecast: £1.6B, previous: £1.8B), and M4 Money Supply rose 0.6% (prev: -0.1%). Both are higher than expected but were overshadowed by global risk-off.
- → News flow — Middle East conflict, surging oil, and recession fears dominate; no UK-specific news offsetting the global move.
Calendar Events
Today's Releases
- → BOE Consumer Credit — Actual: £1.9B (Forecast: £1.6B, Previous: £1.8B). Slightly above expectations, but not market-moving today.
- → M4 Money Supply — Actual: +0.6% (Previous: -0.1%). Higher, but impact swamped by global events.
Remaining Today
- → 09:00 EUR Consumer Confidence Final — Forecast: -16.3 (Previous: -12.3)
Next 48 Hours
- → Tue 31 Mar 06:00: GBP GDP YY — Forecast: 1.0%
- → Wed 01 Apr 08:30: GBP S&P Global Manufacturing PMI — Forecast: 51.2
- → Wed 01 Apr 09:00: EUR Unemployment Rate — Forecast: 6.2%
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates have dropped 10–14bp across all maturities at the AM fix, with the front end leading the move. This is a direct response to a global bond rally as markets react to the escalating Iran conflict, surging oil, and renewed recession fears. If you are watching for the next reset, be aware that live gilt yields remain volatile and the window for current rates may be brief. In this environment, rate swings of this magnitude can reverse quickly—timing is everything.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here after every “one-off” market shock since the days of decimalisation.