PWLB briefing
Afternoon Rate Update
⚠ RATE ALERT — PM reset brings a uniform 3–5bp rise across the curve, with the 50-year up the most (+5bp), as energy-driven inflation and global rate volatility persist.
PWLB PM rates reset higher: 3–4bp up across most maturities, 5bp at the 50-year; the move is broad-based, reflecting ongoing market tension rather than a single data shock.
PWLB PM SNAPSHOT
- → 1y — 5.24% (+3bp)
- → 3y — 5.37% (+3bp)
- → 5y — 5.48% (+3bp)
- → 10y — 5.92% (+3bp)
- → 25y — 6.49% (+4bp)
- → 50y — 6.28% (+5bp)
WHAT'S NEW SINCE THIS MORNING
- → Curve shift — All key tenors up 3–4bp, with the 50-year rising 5bp; the move is consistent across the curve, with the long end leading.
CONTEXT
- → Energy and inflation — Newsflow dominated by the Iran war’s impact on oil and gas prices, with UK and European inflation readings jumping and central banks warning of further rate hikes.
- → UK data — March GDP printed at 1.0% YY (in line), but business investment fell and house prices surprised to the upside; no single data point stands out as the driver.
- → Global volatility — European rates markets are seeing record volatility, with algorithmic trading amplifying swings as the Middle East conflict continues.
LOOK AHEAD
- → No further UK data due today — All key GBP releases have landed.
- → Tomorrow 08:30 — S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (MEDIUM), forecast 51.4.
Markets remain on edge as energy and inflation risks keep upward pressure on long-dated rates—expect volatility to persist while the geopolitical backdrop remains unsettled.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — If you’re waiting for a quiet day, you may be waiting a while.