Morning PWLB Predictions

Little changed so far; predictions reflect small/no move.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

• → 2y: 4.351% (+1bp) — Front end fractionally higher.
• → 10y: 4.854% (+1bp) — Belly stable, up just a touch.
• → 30y: 5.477% (unch) — Long end flat.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

• → 1y: predicted 5.18% (unch)
• → 5y: predicted 5.43% (unch)
• → 10y: predicted 5.86% (-1bp)
• → 20y: predicted 6.37% (-1bp)
• → 30y: predicted 6.46% (unch)
• → 50y: predicted 6.26% (unch)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

• → News and data do not show a clear driver for today's move.

CALENDAR

RELEASES SO FAR TODAY

• → S&P Global Composite PMI — Actual 50.3 vs Forecast 51 vs Previous 53.7 (MEDIUM) — Slightly below expectations; signals slower UK activity, typically gilt-supportive.
• → S&P Global Services PMI — Actual 50.5 vs Forecast 51.2 vs Previous 53.9 (MEDIUM) — Also below forecast; points to softer services momentum.

STILL DUE TODAY

• → 12:30 — USD Durable Goods Orders (MoM) — Forecast: -1.10% — Unlikely to affect the 12:30 PWLB reset unless a major surprise.

NEXT 48 HOURS

• → Wed 14:30 — USD Crude Oil Inventories
• → Wed 17:00 — USD 10-Year Note Auction
• → Wed 18:00 — USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
• → Thu 12:30 — USD Core PCE Price Index (MoM/YoY), GDP (QoQ), Initial Jobless Claims
• → Thu 17:00 — USD 30-Year Bond Auction
• → Fri 12:30 — USD CPI (MoM)

A steady start to the week; keep an eye on global risk events but no fireworks in gilts so far.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only all Mondays were this uneventful.