PWLB briefing
Morning PWLB Predictions
⚠ RATE ALERT — Gilt yields are up 3–5bp across the curve, led by the long end, as global markets react to the US announcement of a Strait of Hormuz blockade and surging oil prices.
Gilts are firmer across all key tenors this morning; expect a higher PWLB reset at 12:30 if these levels hold.
GILTS SNAPSHOT
- → 2y: 4.284% (+4bp) — Front-end up on global inflation concerns.
- → 10y: 4.862% (+4bp) — Belly firmer, tracking risk-off sentiment.
- → 30y: 5.523% (+4bp) — Long end up, mirroring oil-driven global moves.
PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS
- → 1y: predicted 5.10% (unch)
- → 5y: predicted 5.37% (+1bp)
- → 10y: predicted 5.87% (+2bp)
- → 20y: predicted 6.39% (+1bp)
- → 30y: predicted 6.48% (+1bp)
- → 50y: predicted 6.26% (+1bp)
WHAT'S DRIVING THIS
- → US announcement of a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz has driven oil back above $100/bbl, fuelling global inflation concerns and pushing yields higher.
- → News flow highlights risk-off sentiment, with equity markets weaker and bonds selling off on renewed geopolitical tensions.
- → No UK data releases so far today to offset the global backdrop.
CALENDAR
RELEASES SO FAR TODAY
No data released so far today.
STILL DUE TODAY
- → 14:00 — USD Existing Home Sales — Forecast: 4.07M — unlikely to impact gilts or the 12:30 reset.
NEXT 48 HOURS
- → Tue 12:30 — USD PPI (MoM) — Forecast: 1.20%
- → Wed 14:30 — USD Crude Oil Inventories — Previous: 3.081M
Geopolitics and oil are setting the tone; keep an eye on further developments ahead of the PM reset.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — If only gilts could take a long lunch break too.