End of Day Wrap-Up

UK gilt yields fell sharply across the curve today, leading to modest declines in PWLB rates at the afternoon fix.

GILT MOVE SUMMARY

• → 1y: 4.15% (-10bp) — front-end led declines.
• → 5y: 4.30% (-10bp) — broad downward move in short and intermediate maturities.
• → 10y: 4.78% (-9bp) — belly followed the front-end lower.
• → 30y: 5.45% (-5bp) — long end also declined, but less than shorter maturities.

PWLB CLOSE SNAPSHOT

• → 1y: 5.11% (+2bp)
• → 5y: 5.36% (+2bp)
• → 10y: 5.84% (+1bp)
• → 25y: 6.45% (+2bp)
• → 50y: 6.24% (+1bp)

PWLB rates reflected the morning gilt sell-off, but the afternoon gilt rally was not fully captured in the PM fix.

WHAT DROVE TODAY

The sharp decline in gilt yields coincided with softer-than-expected US producer price inflation (US PPI MoM: 0.50% actual vs 1.10% forecast), which helped ease global rate expectations despite ongoing geopolitical risks. News flow was dominated by IMF warnings of downside risks to global growth from the Iran conflict and energy price volatility, but there was no single UK-specific data release driving the move. UK retail sales (BRC YoY: 3.10% vs 0.90% forecast) were stronger, but did not appear to impact rates directionally.

WHAT THIS MEANS

• → Gilt yields fell notably, but the timing of the PWLB rate setting meant only a modest reduction in borrowing costs was reflected at the PM fix.
• → Borrowing rates remain elevated by historical standards, but the direction today was downward for underlying gilts.
• → The shape of the move was front-end led, with shorter maturities seeing the largest yield declines.

NEXT ON THE DIARY

• → Wed 16 Apr, 16:50: BoE Gov Bailey Speaks (MEDIUM)
• → Wed 16 Apr, 19:00: BoE Gov Bailey Speaks (MEDIUM)

Markets remain sensitive to global inflation and geopolitical headlines, with borrowing conditions reflecting both underlying volatility and the timing of PWLB rate settings.

This commentary is for information only and does not constitute financial advice. Always verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before making borrowing decisions.