Morning PWLB Predictions

Gilts are rallying with a clear downward move; expect lower PWLB rates at the 12:30 reset.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

• → 1y: 4.192% (-6bp) — Front end leads the rally.
• → 10y: 4.815% (-5bp) — Belly follows, solid downward move.
• → 30y: 5.485% (-2bp) — Long end firmer, but less pronounced.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

• → 1y: predicted 5.09% (unch)
• → 5y: predicted 5.34% (unch)
• → 10y: predicted 5.83% (unch)
• → 20y: predicted 6.36% (unch)
• → 30y: predicted 6.45% (unch)
• → 50y: predicted 6.21% (-2bp)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

• → Oil prices retreat — Brent crude back below $100 as hopes for US-Iran talks rise, easing inflation concerns (multiple sources).
• → Global risk sentiment improves — Equities rebound, haven demand for gilts softens, but yields still move lower.
• → No major UK data surprises — Calendar is light so far; moves are driven by global headlines, not domestic releases.

CALENDAR

RELEASES SO FAR TODAY

• → BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) — Actual: 3.10% vs Forecast: 0.90% vs Previous: 0.70% (MEDIUM) — Stronger than expected, but not a typical gilt mover.
• → BoE MPC Member Mann Speaks — No market-moving headlines so far (MEDIUM).

STILL DUE TODAY

• → 13:30 — USD PPI (MoM) — Forecast: 1.10% — May influence global rates, but unlikely to shift gilts before 12:30 reset.
• → 17:00 — GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speaks — No forecast — After reset.
• → 21:10 — GBP BoE Breeden Speaks — No forecast — After reset.

NEXT 48 HOURS

• → Wed 15:30 — USD Crude Oil Inventories — Previous: 3.081M
• → Thu 07:00 — GBP GDP (MoM) — Forecast: 0.10%

A softer session for gilts as oil and risk sentiment drive the tone; keep an eye on headlines for any late surprises before the reset.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only oil prices moved as predictably as the tea round.