PWLB briefing

Morning PWLB Predictions

17 April 2026 · 11:30 · By Russell Tew, PWLBtoday

PM RESET PREVIEW — Gilt yields are modestly lower across the curve; expect a small downward adjustment at the 12:30 PWLB reset.

Little changed so far; predictions reflect small/no move.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

→ 1y: 4.131% (-6bp) — Front-end leads the move lower.
→ 10y: 4.830% (-3bp) — Belly softer, but less pronounced than short end.
→ 30y: 5.553% (-1bp) — Long end relatively stable.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

→ 1y: predicted 5.01% (-2bp from current)
→ 5y: predicted 5.31% (-2bp from current)
→ 10y: predicted 5.84% (-2bp from current)
→ 20y: predicted 6.41% (-2bp from current)
→ 30y: predicted 6.51% (-2bp from current)
→ 50y: predicted 6.29% (-1bp from current)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

→ News and data do not show a clear driver for today's move.

CALENDAR

RELEASES SO FAR TODAY

No data released so far today.

STILL DUE TODAY

→ 13:00 — BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks — (MEDIUM) — could affect the 12:30 reset if remarks are market-moving.
→ 20:30 — CFTC GBP speculative net positions — (MEDIUM) — after reset; not relevant for today’s PWLB fix.

NEXT 48 HOURS

→ Tuesday 13:30 — USD Retail Sales (MoM) — HIGH — Forecast: n/a
→ Tuesday 13:30 — USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) — HIGH — Forecast: n/a

Curve is drifting lower in calm conditions; no strong catalyst evident. Usual caveats around event risk apply.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only every Friday were this straightforward.