Morning PWLB Predictions

Gilt yields are higher across all key tenors so far today; PWLB predictions reflect a modest upward adjustment at the long end for the 12:30 reset.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

• → 2y: 4.413% (+6bp) — Front-end firmer, reflecting broad risk-off tone.
• → 10y: 4.982% (+7bp) — Belly leads the move, marking the sharpest rise today.
• → 30y: 5.649% (+5bp) — Long end also firmer, but less aggressive than the belly.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

• → 1y: predicted 5.25% (unch)
• → 5y: predicted 5.50% (unch)
• → 10y: predicted 5.98% (unch)
• → 20y: predicted 6.52% (+1bp)
• → 30y: predicted 6.59% (unch)
• → 50y: predicted 6.37% (unch)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

• → Heightened geopolitical risk: Ongoing Iran war, Hormuz closure, and related energy market disruption are prominent in newsflow and continue to weigh on global bonds.
• → UK retail sales: Actual +0.7% vs forecast +0.3%, previous -0.3% — above expectations, with fuel sales surging as motorists stock up; supports the case for firmer yields.
• → Broader risk-off: Global equities weaker, oil and gas prices elevated, and safe-haven demand for USD all cited in overnight commentary.

CALENDAR

Releases so far today

• → UK Retail Sales — +0.7% actual vs +0.3% forecast vs -0.3% previous — (High) — Stronger than expected, driven by fuel demand; supports firmer yields.

Still due today

Nothing further scheduled today.

Next 48 hours

Calendar is light over the next 48 hours.

A busy morning for gilts, with the market focused on geopolitics and robust UK data; keep an eye on the PM reset for any further curve shifts.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only gilts could take a long weekend. See you at the next reset.