Morning PWLB Predictions

Little changed so far; predictions reflect small/no move.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

• → 2y: 4.482% (+3bp) — Short end slightly firmer.
• → 10y: 5.020% (+1bp) — Belly broadly steady.
• → 30y: 5.691% (-1bp) — Long end marginally softer.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

• → 1y: predicted 5.28% (-1bp from current)
• → 5y: predicted 5.56% (-1bp from current)
• → 10y: predicted 6.04% (-1bp from current)
• → 20y: predicted 6.57% (-1bp from current)
• → 30y: predicted 6.66% (-1bp from current)
• → 50y: predicted 6.44% (-1bp from current)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

• → News and data do not show a clear driver for today's move.

CALENDAR

RELEASES SO FAR TODAY

• → Nationwide Housing Prices MoM — Actual: 0.40% vs Forecast: -0.30% vs Previous: 0.90% (MEDIUM) — Stronger than expected; signals continued resilience in UK housing.
• → Nationwide Housing Prices YoY — Actual: 3.0% vs Forecast: 2.20% vs Previous: 2.20% (MEDIUM) — Above forecast; points to firmer property market.
• → Mortgage Approvals — Actual: 63.5K vs Forecast: 60K vs Previous: 62.7K (MEDIUM) — Slightly above expectations; hints at steady credit demand.

STILL DUE TODAY

• → 15:00 — USD ISM Manufacturing PMI — Forecast: 53 — May influence global rates but unlikely to affect the 12:30 reset.

NEXT 48 HOURS

• → Tue 15:00 — USD ISM Services PMI — Forecast: 54
• → Tue 15:00 — USD JOLTs Job Openings — Forecast: 7

A steady morning for gilts; PWLB rates look set for a minor downward nudge at the next reset barring any surprises.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If in doubt, check the fix and keep your powder dry.