PWLB briefing

Morning PWLB Predictions

8 May 2026 · 11:31 · By Russell Tew, PWLBtoday

⚠ RATE ALERT — Gilt yields are down 5–7bp across the curve this morning, with the move led by the long end; no single clear driver in today's inputs.

Gilt yields are lower across all key tenors so far today, pointing to a downward reset for PWLB rates at 12:30.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

→ 2y: 4.354% (-3bp) — Mild drop at the front end.
→ 10y: 4.887% (-5bp) — Belly down in line with the curve.
→ 30y: 5.559% (-7bp) — Long end leads the move lower.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

→ 1y: predicted 5.18% (-2bp from current)
→ 5y: predicted 5.44% (-4bp from current)
→ 10y: predicted 5.91% (-4bp from current)
→ 20y: predicted 6.43% (-5bp from current)
→ 30y: predicted 6.52% (-5bp from current)
→ 50y: predicted 6.30% (-5bp from current)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

→ News and data do not show a clear driver for today's move.

CALENDAR

RELEASES SO FAR TODAY

→ Halifax House Price Index YoY — Actual: 0.40% vs Forecast: 0.60% vs Previous: 0.80% (Medium) — below expectations; signals softer housing market.
→ Halifax House Price Index MoM — Actual: -0.10% vs Forecast: -0.10% vs Previous: -0.50% (Medium) — in line with forecast; confirms ongoing mild price declines.
→ BBA Mortgage Rate — Actual: 6.60% vs Forecast: 6.70% vs Previous: 6.60% (Low) — unchanged; limited direct impact on gilts.

STILL DUE TODAY

→ 13:30 — USD Non Farm Payrolls — Forecast: 62K — could influence global rates but will land after the PWLB reset.
→ 13:30 — USD Unemployment Rate — Forecast: 4.30% — after the reset; unlikely to affect today's PWLB pricing.
→ 15:00 — USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel — Forecast: 49.5 — after the reset; not relevant for today's fix.

NEXT 48 HOURS

→ Monday 15:00 — USD Existing Home Sales — Forecast: 4.05M
→ Tuesday 13:30 — USD Core Inflation Rate MoM — Forecast: 0.40%
→ Tuesday 13:30 — USD Inflation Rate MoM — Forecast: 0.60%
→ Tuesday 13:30 — USD Core Inflation Rate YoY — Forecast: 2.60%
→ Tuesday 13:30 — USD Inflation Rate YoY — Forecast: 3.60%

Curve is bull-flattening into the reset, with no single data point or news item standing out as the catalyst.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only the rest of the week were this straightforward.