PWLB briefing

Morning PWLB Predictions

19 May 2026 · 11:31 · By Russell Tew, PWLBtoday

PM RESET PREVIEW — Gilt yields are modestly lower across the curve; expect a small downward adjustment at the 12:30 PWLB reset.

Little changed so far; predictions reflect small/no move.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

→ 2y: 4.438% (-1bp) — Short end slightly firmer.
→ 10y: 5.057% (-3bp) — Belly yields down modestly.
→ 30y: 5.713% (-4bp) — Long end softens further.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

→ 1y: predicted 5.20% (-1bp from current)
→ 5y: predicted 5.60% (-1bp from current)
→ 10y: predicted 6.08% (-1bp from current)
→ 20y: predicted 6.59% (-1bp from current)
→ 30y: predicted 6.67% (-1bp from current)
→ 50y: predicted 6.44% (-1bp from current)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

→ No single clear driver in today's inputs.

CALENDAR

RELEASES SO FAR TODAY

→ Unemployment Rate — Actual: 5.0% vs Forecast: 4.90% vs Previous: 4.90% (HIGH) — Slightly above expectations; signals softer labour market.
→ Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) — Actual: 4.10% vs Forecast: 3.80% vs Previous: 3.90% (MEDIUM) — Earnings growth above forecast; could be inflationary.
→ Employment Change — Actual: 148K vs Forecast: 107K vs Previous: 24K (MEDIUM) — Stronger than expected; mixed signals for jobs market.
→ Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) — Actual: 3.40% vs Forecast: 3.40% vs Previous: 3.60% (LOW) — In line with forecast; wage pressures steadying.
→ Claimant Count Change — Actual: 26.5K vs Forecast: 27.3K vs Previous: 4.9K (LOW) — Slightly below forecast; limited impact.
→ HMRC Payrolls Change — Actual: -100K vs Forecast: -26K vs Previous: -28K (LOW) — Notably weaker; points to labour market cooling.
→ Labour Productivity QoQ — Actual: 0.90% vs Forecast: -0.30% vs Previous: -0.50% (LOW) — Productivity rebound; not a major gilt driver.
→ Index-linked Treasury Gilt 2031 Auction — Actual: 0.65% vs Previous: 0.95% (LOW) — Auction result; limited direct impact.

STILL DUE TODAY

Nothing further scheduled today.

NEXT 48 HOURS

→ Wed 07:00 — GBP Inflation Rate YoY — Forecast: 3.0%
→ Wed 19:00 — USD FOMC Minutes
→ Thu 09:30 — GBP S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash — Forecast: 53
→ Thu 09:30 — GBP S&P Global Services PMI Flash — Forecast: 51.8

Curve softening is modest and broad-based; no sharp moves or clear catalyst so far. Watch for tomorrow's inflation print for the next meaningful steer.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only the weather forecast was as steady as the curve.