PWLB briefing
Afternoon Rate Update
PM NOTICE SUMMARY — PWLB rates reset lower by 2–4bp across the curve this afternoon, with the largest moves in the 3–15 year area.
The 12:17 PWLB PM reset saw rates fall modestly by 2–4bp across all key maturities, reflecting a broad-based move lower since the morning.
PWLB PM SNAPSHOT
- → 1y: 5.17% (-2bp)
- → 3y: 5.39% (-4bp)
- → 5y: 5.57% (-4bp)
- → 10y: 6.06% (-4bp)
- → 25y: 6.66% (-3bp)
- → 50y: 6.44% (-3bp)
WHAT'S NEW SINCE THIS MORNING
- → Front end and belly led the move — 3y and 5y tenors dropped by 4bp, with 1y down 2bp.
- → Long end also softer — 25y and 50y both reset 3bp lower.
CONTEXT
- → UK inflation undershot expectations — April CPI YoY fell to 2.8% (forecast: 3.0%, prior: 3.3%), with core CPI at 2.5% (forecast: 2.6%, prior: 3.1%).
- → Gilts rallied on the data — Newswires report a sharp move lower in yields after the inflation release as traders trimmed BoE rate hike bets.
- → Energy prices and policy in focus — Lower gas/electricity bills cited as key to the inflation drop, but ongoing Iran-related supply risks remain prominent in headlines.
LOOK AHEAD
- → Tonight 19:00 — USD FOMC Minutes (HIGH impact)
- → Tomorrow 09:30 — GBP S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (HIGH, forecast: 53.0; prior: 53.7)
- → Tomorrow 09:30 — GBP S&P Global Services PMI Flash (HIGH, forecast: 51.7; prior: 52.7)
A modest downward reset for PWLB rates this afternoon, with inflation data the clear catalyst; eyes now turn to the FOMC minutes and tomorrow's UK PMIs.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — If only all resets were this straightforward. Onward.