PWLB briefing
Morning Rate Update
PWLB rates are little changed after the 09:28 AM reset, with moves of just 0–2bp across the curve and no material shift in shape.
NOTICE SUMMARY — PWLB fixed rates are broadly steady at the AM fix, with only minor adjustments and no significant curve movement.
PWLB Curve Hits the Snooze Button: Minor Tweaks, No Surprises
PWLB SNAPSHOT
| Tenor | Rate | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.19% | -3bp |
| 3y | 5.43% | -2bp |
| 5y | 5.61% | unch |
| 10y | 6.10% | +1bp |
| 25y | 6.69% | +2bp |
| 50y | 6.47% | +1bp |
Curve is essentially unchanged, with only minor moves at both ends.
Movements are negligible across the curve.
CONTEXT
- → UK inflation (Apr): Headline CPI came in at 2.8% y/y (forecast: 3.0%, previous: 3.3%), below expectations and marking a notable drop.
- → Core CPI (Apr): 2.5% y/y (forecast: 2.6%, previous: 3.1%), also below forecast.
- → Market news flow: No material UK macro or gilt-specific headlines affecting rates this morning.
CALENDAR EVENTS
TODAY'S RELEASES
- → GBP Inflation Rate YoY (Apr): 2.8% (forecast: 3.0%, previous: 3.3%) — Lower than expected, easing pressure on gilt yields.
- → GBP Core Inflation Rate YoY (Apr): 2.5% (forecast: 2.6%, previous: 3.1%) — Also below forecast, reinforcing the disinflation trend.
REMAINING TODAY
- → 19:00 USD FOMC Minutes: High impact, may influence global rates, but no direct UK data due.
NEXT 48 HOURS
- → Thu 21 May 09:30: GBP S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash — Forecast: 53
- → Thu 21 May 09:30: GBP S&P Global Services PMI Flash — Forecast: 51.7
⚑ Treasurer's Note — PWLB rates are essentially flat after the AM reset, with only minor moves of 0–2bp and no meaningful curve shift. The inflation data came in softer than forecast, but this has not translated into any significant rate change at the window. Unless live gilts move sharply ahead of the PM reset, expect a similarly steady picture into the afternoon.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — still here, still watching, still unimpressed by 2bp moves.