PWLB briefing

Morning PWLB Predictions

21 May 2026 · 11:30 · By Russell Tew, PWLBtoday

PM RESET PREVIEW — Gilt yields are little changed across the curve; expect only minor adjustments at the 12:30 PWLB reset.

Little changed so far; predictions reflect small/no move.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

→ 1y: 4.178% (+2bp) — Mild front-end uptick.
→ 10y: 4.964% (-1bp) — Belly fractionally softer.
→ 30y: 5.639% (-2bp) — Long end drifting lower.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

→ 1y: predicted 5.17% (+3bp from current)
→ 5y: predicted 5.55% (+2bp from current)
→ 10y: predicted 6.03% (+2bp from current)
→ 20y: predicted 6.56% (+2bp from current)
→ 30y: predicted 6.64% (+2bp from current)
→ 50y: predicted 6.40% (+1bp from current)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

→ News and data do not show a clear driver for today's move.

CALENDAR

RELEASES SO FAR TODAY

→ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash — 53.7 vs 53 forecast vs 53.7 previous (HIGH) — In line with previous, no surprise for gilts.
→ S&P Global Services PMI Flash — 47.9 vs 51.7 forecast vs 52.7 previous (HIGH) — Significantly below expectations; signals weaker services activity.
→ CBI Industrial Trends Orders — -41 vs -40 forecast vs -38 previous (MEDIUM) — Slightly weaker than expected; limited direct impact.
→ S&P Global Composite PMI Flash — 48.5 vs 51.6 forecast vs 52.6 previous (LOW) — Below forecast; points to softer overall activity.
→ Treasury Gilt 2036 Auction — 5.03% vs 4.61% previous (LOW) — Higher yield at auction, but not a major curve driver.

STILL DUE TODAY

→ 13:30 — USD Building Permits Prel — Forecast: 1.39M — unlikely to affect the 12:30 reset.
→ 13:30 — USD Housing Starts — Forecast: 1.41M — after the PWLB reset.
→ 14:00 — GBP BoE Taylor Speech — LOW impact, after the reset.

NEXT 48 HOURS

→ Fri 07:00 — GBP Retail Sales MoM — Forecast: -0.60%
→ Fri 07:00 — EUR GfK Consumer Confidence — Forecast: -34
→ Fri 09:00 — EUR Ifo Business Climate — Forecast: 84.2

A subdued session so far—PWLB borrowers can expect only marginal changes at the next reset barring any late surprises.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only all days were this straightforward.