PWLB briefing
Morning PWLB Predictions
PM RESET PREVIEW — Gilt yields are modestly lower across the curve (-3 to -4bp); expect a small downward adjustment at the 12:30 PWLB reset.
Little changed so far; predictions reflect small/no move.
GILTS SNAPSHOT
- → 2y: 4.339% (-3bp) — Front end slightly firmer.
- → 10y: 4.918% (-4bp) — Belly leads the move lower.
- → 30y: 5.589% (-3bp) — Long end steady, small drop.
PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS
- → 1y: predicted 5.13% (+1bp from current)
- → 5y: predicted 5.47% (unch from current)
- → 10y: predicted 5.95% (+1bp from current)
- → 20y: predicted 6.48% (+1bp from current)
- → 30y: predicted 6.56% (+1bp from current)
- → 50y: predicted 6.32% (+1bp from current)
WHAT'S DRIVING THIS
- → No single clear driver in today's inputs.
CALENDAR
RELEASES SO FAR TODAY
- → GfK Consumer Confidence — Actual: -23 vs Forecast: -28 vs Previous: -25 (MEDIUM) — Slightly less negative than expected; modestly supportive for sentiment but not market-moving.
- → Retail Sales MoM — Actual: -1.30% vs Forecast: -0.60% vs Previous: 0.60% (HIGH) — Sharply below expectations; signals weaker demand, typically supportive for gilts.
- → Retail Sales YoY — Actual: 0.0% vs Forecast: 1.30% vs Previous: 1.40% (MEDIUM) — Flat year-on-year; below forecast, underlines weak consumption.
STILL DUE TODAY
Nothing further scheduled today.
NEXT 48 HOURS
Calendar is light over the next 48 hours.
A quiet session so far; enjoy the calm while it lasts.
This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.
Gilt Edge Advisor — If only all Fridays were this uneventful.