Morning PWLB Predictions

Little changed so far; predictions reflect small downward moves for most PWLB tenors at the next reset.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

• → 2y: 4.276% (-4bp) — Front-end lower, mild flattening.
• → 10y: 4.858% (-4bp) — Belly softens in line with front-end.
• → 30y: 5.537% (-3bp) — Long end also down, curve broadly parallel.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

• → 1y: predicted 5.09% (unch)
• → 5y: predicted 5.42% (unch)
• → 10y: predicted 5.88% (unch)
• → 20y: predicted 6.42% (+1bp)
• → 30y: predicted 6.50% (+1bp)
• → 50y: predicted 6.26% (+1bp)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

• → News and data do not show a clear driver for today's move.

CALENDAR

RELEASES SO FAR TODAY

• → BRC Shop Price Inflation — Actual: 1.20% vs Forecast: 1.10% vs Previous: 1.0% — (LOW) — Slightly above expectations, but low impact for gilts.
• → CBI Distributive Trades — Actual: -46 vs Forecast: -60 vs Previous: -68 — (MEDIUM) — Above forecast, but not a major gilt driver.

STILL DUE TODAY

Nothing further scheduled today.

NEXT 48 HOURS

• → Thu 13:30 — USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est — Forecast: 2.0%
• → Thu 13:30 — USD Core PCE Price Index MoM — Forecast: 0.30%
• → Thu 13:30 — USD Durable Goods Orders MoM — Forecast: 3.50%
• → Thu 13:30 — USD Personal Income/Spending MoM — Forecasts: 0.40% / 0.50%

Steady session so far; no major data or news is shifting the dial for gilts ahead of the PM reset.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only all resets were this uneventful.