Morning PWLB Predictions

Gilt yields are lower by 4–5bp at all key tenors; expect a downward adjustment at the 12:30 PWLB reset.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

• → 2y: 4.237% (-5bp) — Front-end lower, matching broader curve move.
• → 10y: 4.821% (-5bp) — Belly down in line with short end.
• → 30y: 5.511% (-4bp) — Long end also softer, curve broadly parallel.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

• → 1y: predicted 5.04% (-3bp from current)
• → 5y: predicted 5.39% (-1bp from current)
• → 10y: predicted 5.86% (-1bp from current)
• → 20y: predicted 6.40% (unch from current)
• → 30y: predicted 6.49% (unch from current)
• → 50y: predicted 6.26% (unch from current)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

• → News and data do not show a clear driver for today's move.

CALENDAR

RELEASES SO FAR TODAY

• → Treasury Gilt 2033 Auction — Actual: 4.55% vs Previous: 4.51% — (Low impact) — No material effect on broader gilt curve.

STILL DUE TODAY

Nothing further scheduled today.

NEXT 48 HOURS

• → Thu 13:30 — USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est — Forecast: 2.0%
• → Thu 13:30 — USD Core PCE Price Index MoM — Forecast: 0.30%
• → Thu 13:30 — USD Durable Goods Orders MoM — Forecast: 3.50%
• → Thu 13:30 — USD Personal Income/Spending MoM — Forecasts: 0.40% / 0.50%

A parallel move lower across the curve sets up a softer PWLB reset at midday; keep an eye on US data tomorrow for the next potential catalyst.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only every day were this straightforward.