PWLB briefing
End of Day Wrap-Up
UK gilt yields rose sharply across the curve today, leading to modest upward moves in some short and medium PWLB rates, with longer maturities broadly unchanged or slightly lower.
GILT MOVE SUMMARY
| Tenor | Yield | Change | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2y | 4.309% | +11bp | Front-end led rise |
| 5y | 4.448% | +10bp | Broad upward pressure |
| 10y | 4.895% | +9bp | Belly follows front-end |
| 30y | 5.588% | +8bp | Long end firmer, but less pronounced |
PWLB CLOSE SNAPSHOT
| Tenor | Rate | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | 5.06% | unch |
| 5y | 5.39% | unch |
| 10y | 5.87% | unch |
| 25y | 6.48% | unch |
| 50y | 6.27% | unch |
PWLB rates saw only minor changes, with a +1bp move in 2y and 7y, and a -1bp move in 40y, but key maturities were unchanged.
WHAT DROVE TODAY
The sharp rise in gilt yields was not directly linked to any major UK data release, as domestic figures were mixed: Nationwide house prices fell more than expected MoM (-0.60% actual vs -0.10% forecast), while the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final slightly beat expectations (53.9 actual vs 53.7 forecast). However, global risk sentiment was affected by renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with news of fresh US-Iran military exchanges and a rebound in oil prices. US economic data also surprised to the upside (ISM Manufacturing PMI 54 vs 53 forecast), contributing to higher global yields. Market commentary highlighted concerns that persistent inflation and strong US data could keep global rates elevated.
WHAT THIS MEANS
- → Borrowing costs — Gilt yields rose notably, but most key PWLB rates ended the day unchanged, limiting the immediate impact on new loan pricing.
- → Curve shape — The move was led by the front end, with the long end less affected, resulting in a modest flattening.
- → Volatility — The session saw a notable repricing, reflecting sensitivity to global macro and geopolitical developments.
NEXT ON THE DIARY
- → Tue 09:30 — GBP Mortgage Approvals (Forecast: 62K; Previous: 63.5K)
Gilt and PWLB markets ended the day with higher yields but limited pass-through to most borrowing rates, as global factors dominated the session.
This commentary is for information only and does not constitute financial advice. Always verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before making borrowing decisions.