Morning PWLB Predictions

Gilt yields are lower by 5–7bp at all key tenors; expect a downward shift in PWLB rates at the 12:30 reset.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

• → 2y: 4.256% (-6bp) — Front-end lower, matching broader curve move.
• → 10y: 4.831% (-6bp) — Belly down in line with rest of curve.
• → 30y: 5.526% (-6bp) — Long end also sharply lower.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

• → 1y: predicted 5.08% (unch from current)
• → 5y: predicted 5.40% (unch from current)
• → 10y: predicted 5.86% (-1bp from current)
• → 20y: predicted 6.40% (-1bp from current)
• → 30y: predicted 6.49% (-1bp from current)
• → 50y: predicted 6.26% (-1bp from current)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

• → News and data do not show a clear driver for today's move.

CALENDAR

RELEASES SO FAR TODAY

• → GBP Mortgage Lending — Actual: data not available vs Forecast: data not available vs Previous: data not available — (MEDIUM) — Lending trends can affect short gilt yields.
• → GBP BoE Consumer Credit — Actual: data not available vs Forecast: data not available vs Previous: data not available — (MEDIUM) — Consumer credit growth is a signal for household demand.
• → GBP Mortgage Approvals — Actual: data not available vs Forecast: data not available vs Previous: data not available — (MEDIUM) — Approvals can be an early indicator for housing and rates.

STILL DUE TODAY

• → 15:00 — USD JOLTs Job Openings — Forecast: 6.8M — Unlikely to affect the 12:30 PWLB reset.

NEXT 48 HOURS

• → Wed 15:00 — USD ISM Services PMI — Forecast: 53.6

Gilts are moving decisively lower, but with no obvious catalyst in today's data, the focus remains on the curve's shape ahead of the PM reset.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only the rest of the world moved as predictably as the PWLB reset.