Morning PWLB Predictions

Little changed so far; predictions reflect small/no move.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

• → 2y: 4.345% (-2bp) — Front end slightly firmer.
• → 10y: 4.913% (-2bp) — Belly down in line with rest of curve.
• → 30y: 5.600% (-1bp) — Long end marginally lower.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

• →1y: predicted 5.14% (unch)
• →5y: predicted 5.48% (unch)
• →10y: predicted 5.94% (unch)
• →20y: predicted 6.46% (-1bp)
• →30y: predicted 6.55% (-1bp)
• →50y: predicted 6.33% (-1bp)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

• → S&P Global Construction PMI came in at 38.2 (forecast 40.2, previous 39.7) — below expectations, highlighting ongoing weakness in UK construction.
• → No single clear driver in today's inputs; moves are modest and broadly in line with recent ranges.

CALENDAR

RELEASES SO FAR TODAY

• → S&P Global Construction PMI — 38.2 vs 40.2 vs 39.7 — (MEDIUM) — materially below forecast; signals sector contraction, a mild positive for gilts.
• → New Car Sales YoY — 7.10% vs 3.70% vs 24% — (LOW) — above forecast, but low impact for gilts.

STILL DUE TODAY

• → 16:40 — BoE Gov Bailey Speech — (MEDIUM) — unlikely to affect the 12:30 reset.

NEXT 48 HOURS

• → Fri 13:30 — USD Unemployment Rate — Forecast: 4.30%
• → Fri 13:30 — USD Non Farm Payrolls — Forecast: 85K

A routine session so far, with only minor curve shifts and no major surprises on the data front.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only all days were this straightforward.