PWLB briefing

Morning PWLB Predictions

9 June 2026 · 11:31 · By Russell Tew, PWLBtoday

PM RESET PREVIEW — Gilt yields are little changed across the curve; expect a flat to marginally lower PWLB reset at 12:30.

Little changed so far; predictions reflect small/no move.

GILTS SNAPSHOT

→ 1y: 4.178% (-3bp) — Front end slightly firmer.
→ 10y: 4.937% (-1bp) — Belly fractionally lower.
→ 30y: 5.620% (unch) — Long end steady.

PWLB 12:30 RESET — PREDICTIONS

→ 1y: predicted 5.14% (unch)
→ 5y: predicted 5.51% (+1bp)
→ 10y: predicted 5.97% (+1bp)
→ 20y: predicted 6.50% (+1bp)
→ 30y: predicted 6.59% (+1bp)
→ 50y: predicted 6.37% (+1bp)

WHAT'S DRIVING THIS

→ News and data do not show a clear driver for today's move.

CALENDAR

Releases so far today

→ BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY — Actual: 3.40% vs Forecast: 0.60% vs Previous: -3.40% — (MEDIUM) — Stronger retail sales, but little direct impact on gilts.

Still due today

→ 15:00 — USD Existing Home Sales — Forecast: 4.07M — Unlikely to affect the 12:30 PWLB reset.

Next 48 hours

→ Wed 13:30 — USD Core Inflation Rate MoM — Forecast: 0.30%
→ Wed 13:30 — USD Inflation Rate MoM — Forecast: 0.50%
→ Wed 13:30 — USD Core Inflation Rate YoY — Forecast: 2.90%
→ Wed 13:30 — USD Inflation Rate YoY — Forecast: 4.20%

A steady morning for gilts; no surprises expected for the midday PWLB reset.

This commentary is provided for information only and is not financial advice. Please verify rates directly with PWLB or official sources before acting.

Gilt Edge Advisor — If only every day were this uneventful.